Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE:BKD) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE:BKD), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$814m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.28 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Brookdale Senior Living from four analysts is for revenues of US$3.21b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 6.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 43% to US$0.68. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.22b and losses of US$0.56 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Brookdale Senior Living even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a very substantial increase in per-share losses.

View our latest analysis for Brookdale Senior Living

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$7.70, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Brookdale Senior Living, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$9.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Brookdale Senior Living's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 8.5% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.9% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.0% annually. So while Brookdale Senior Living's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Brookdale Senior Living. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Brookdale Senior Living going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Brookdale Senior Living that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.