agilon health, inc. (NYSE:AGL) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results

agilon health, inc. (NYSE:AGL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.5% to US$3.35 in the week after its latest yearly results. The statutory results were mixed overall, with revenues of US$6.1b in line with analyst forecasts, but losses of US$0.63 per share, some 9.4% larger than the analysts were predicting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for agilon health

Following last week's earnings report, agilon health's 21 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$6.10b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 38% to US$0.37. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.61b and losses of US$0.40 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

There was a decent 16% increase in the price target to US$3.56, with the analysts clearly signalling that the expected reduction in losses is a positive, despite a weaker revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on agilon health, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$6.00 and the most bearish at US$2.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the agilon health's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that agilon health's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 38% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than agilon health.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on agilon health. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for agilon health going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with agilon health .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.