Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.1% to US$6.82 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was a respectable set of results; while revenues of US$53m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 17% smaller than expected, with Treace Medical Concepts losing US$0.25 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Treace Medical Concepts after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Treace Medical Concepts from seven analysts is for revenues of US$227.3m in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 7.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 7.3% to US$0.78 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$227.5m and US$0.84 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

View our latest analysis for Treace Medical Concepts

The average price target held steady at US$10.73, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Treace Medical Concepts analyst has a price target of US$16.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Treace Medical Concepts' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Treace Medical Concepts' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.2% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Treace Medical Concepts is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Treace Medical Concepts going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Treace Medical Concepts that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.