Has Progyny’s 62.7% Surge Outrun Its Fundamentals in 2025?

• Wondering if Progyny is still a smart buy after its big run, or if you have already missed the window? This breakdown will help you decide whether the current price really matches the company’s long term potential.
• Despite a choppy last week with the share price down 8.9%, Progyny is still up 27.2% over the last month, 35.5% year to date, and 62.7% over the past year, even though 3 and 5 year returns remain in the red.
• Recent gains have come as investors refocus on structural demand for fertility benefits and Progyny’s position as a specialized platform in employer sponsored healthcare, with market chatter highlighting its differentiated network and member outcomes. At the same time, shifting risk appetite across high growth healthcare names has amplified price swings. This makes it even more important to separate narrative from numbers.
• On our framework Progyny scores a 3 out of 6 valuation score, suggesting it screens as undervalued on half of our checks. Next we will walk through what different valuation approaches say about the stock, before finishing with a more powerful way to think about fair value in context.

Progyny delivered 62.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Healthcare industry.

Approach 1: Progyny Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today’s value. For Progyny, this is done using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity framework that focuses on cash available to shareholders.

Progyny generated around $199.8 Million in free cash flow over the last twelve months. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for the next several years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates those trends, with free cash flow expected to reach roughly $307.4 Million by 2035 as growth gradually moderates. All figures are in $.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $71.04 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies the stock is trading at a 66.2% discount, suggesting investors are paying far less than what the cash flow profile would justify on this set of assumptions.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Progyny is undervalued by 66.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 906 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Progyny.

Approach 2: Progyny Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Progyny, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of current earnings. It naturally captures expectations for future growth and the risk investors see in those earnings, with faster growing and more resilient businesses typically justifying a higher PE, while slower or riskier names trade on lower multiples.

Progyny currently trades on a PE of about 36.6x, which is notably richer than the broader Healthcare industry average of around 22.2x and close to the peer group average of roughly 22.1x. At first glance, that premium suggests the market is already pricing in stronger growth or quality than the typical healthcare stock.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework refines this comparison by estimating what PE multiple a stock should trade on given its specific earnings growth outlook, margins, industry, market cap, and risk profile. For Progyny, this Fair Ratio comes out at about 26.1x, which is meaningfully below the current 36.6x. That gap indicates the market price is running ahead of what the fundamentals would justify on this methodology.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Progyny Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you describe the story you believe about Progyny, link that story to a set of revenue, earnings, and margin forecasts, and instantly see a Fair Value you can compare to today’s price to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell. The Narrative automatically updates as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build a bullish Progyny Narrative around sustained women’s health demand, rising margins toward roughly 7%, and a future PE near 26.8x that supports a Fair Value above the current $22.97 share price. A more cautious investor might lean on the lower earnings and price targets, assume slower growth, and conclude that even a Fair Value closer to the low analyst target of $23 means the upside is limited. This demonstrates how Narratives turn your personal view into a living valuation framework rather than a static number.

Do you think there's more to the story for Progyny? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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