When Will Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CODX) Breakeven?

Co-Diagnostics, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CODX): Co-Diagnostics, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, intends to manufacture and sell reagents used for diagnostic tests that function via the detection and/or analysis of nucleic acid molecules. The company’s loss has recently broadened since it announced a -US$6.3m loss in the full financial year, compared to the latest trailing-twelve-month loss of -US$6.3m, moving it further away from breakeven. Many investors are wondering the rate at which CODX will turn a profit, with the big question being “when will the company breakeven?” I’ve put together a brief outline of industry analyst expectations for CODX, its year of breakeven and its implied growth rate.

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See our latest analysis for Co-Diagnostics

CODX is bordering on breakeven, according to the 2 Medical Equipment analysts. They anticipate the company to incur a final loss in 2019, before generating positive profits of US$878k in 2020. Therefore, CODX is expected to breakeven roughly a couple of months from now! In order to meet this breakeven date, I calculated the rate at which CODX must grow year-on-year. It turns out an average annual growth rate of 72% is expected, which is extremely buoyant. If this rate turns out to be too aggressive, CODX may become profitable much later than analysts predict.

NasdaqCM:CODX Past and Future Earnings, May 20th 2019
NasdaqCM:CODX Past and Future Earnings, May 20th 2019

Underlying developments driving CODX’s growth isn’t the focus of this broad overview, however, take into account that typically a high growth rate is not out of the ordinary, particularly when a company is in a period of investment.

Before I wrap up, there’s one aspect worth mentioning. CODX currently has no debt on its balance sheet, which is rare for a loss-making loss-making, growth company, which typically has high debt relative to its equity. This means that CODX has been operating purely on its equity investment and has no debt burden. This aspect reduces the risk around investing in the loss-making company.

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Next Steps:

There are key fundamentals of CODX which are not covered in this article, but I must stress again that this is merely a basic overview. For a more comprehensive look at CODX, take a look at CODX’s company page on Simply Wall St. I’ve also put together a list of key aspects you should further research:

  1. Valuation: What is CODX worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether CODX is currently mispriced by the market.
  2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Co-Diagnostics’s board and the CEO’s back ground.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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About NasdaqCM:CODX

Co-Diagnostics

Operates as a molecular diagnostics company that develops, manufactures, and sells reagents used for diagnostic tests that function through the detection and/or analysis of nucleic acid molecules in the United States and internationally.

High growth potential with moderate risk.

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Hello,(I am a shareholder).I spent the summer investigating in whatever I was able to find in the press, the trustee, or legal, and comparing it to FS Benner's declaration/transcripts:press: MM has a tendancy to use facts, modify them and turn them the way they want: 100% of their claims against TPG0 is traçable factually, 80% is flawed and interpreted. Example are numerous: 11M loans banks to be paid seems right, but it has not been an issue at all, it has been paid in full. (and it happens all the time in every business...); the previous HR becoming a financial director in the article herself being attacked by TPG on the legal side; the wrong address of curator (if truly announced by TPG).Trustee: according to my research (which can be incomplete) no communication to the Nordic trustee (hereby, bond holders) has been done on a, indebtedness (late payment) > 1M€, which is their obligation by contract (clause 14.d - https://corporate.the-platform-group.com/bond/) => this is a sign of a huge lie and fraud, or the sign that there is no indebtedness > 1M€ over the whole TPG group.Legal: still awaiting for an answer, probable that I won't get it.VALUATIONYou can spent hours working the fundamentals, if they're flawed...the thesis falls.Anyway, I always substracts the badwill (that I consider non-current - you have it in the CFS) & non-controlling interests from my valuation:Earnings ~22MFCF ~40M€The financial statements are not the issue here, we are more on an cheap option on the sincerity of the accounts that a real valuation. Unfortunately, these are unverifiable elements, hence the low price./!\ Careful:the accounts are consolidated and skip the subsidiaries issues...Careful with the business model: TPG0 is a financial holding that acquire subsidiaries, hold the debt, and has no operations. 100% of the Cash Flow comes from subs' dividends => it is a risk here, more a plumber risk than an operational one, but nevertheless...The auditor is too small, and managed by the same firm than before, with 140K€/year commission => it's too low, nobody external really reviewed what Benner and his team are doing internallycapital increase do not go through the CFS, but through change in equity AND equity in the BSIf the equity stays low too long, the WACC increase will be unbearable (I have a 30% global, with a 118% on equity): diluting is expensive => TPG machine can stay broken for a while.Most of the people I talk with never saw this, while this is ESSENTIAL to Benner's business model.SEVERAL EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE:AEP is being audited by KPMG: if Benner plays the "we will propose KPMG to our shareholders BEOY", this can increase the trust in him significantly/KPMG (or other) to validate the 2026 IFRS accounts & having a word on HGB's: though still consolidated, at least we'll know...AEP being eventually acquired: while it carries a high integration risk due to its size, they talked about it so many times, that trust goes with it.Without this combination of event, the equity is doomed to stay at this level, IMO.Do not forget to also follow the bond: with TPG's announced safe harbor plan for buyback (25% of daily exchange), it is also interesting to check this illiquid and retail market: https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/bond/no0013256834-the-platform-group-ag-8-875-24-28?mic=XFRA

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