Need To Know: Analysts Just Made A Substantial Cut To Their Biodesix, Inc. (NASDAQ:BDSX) Estimates

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Biodesix, Inc. (NASDAQ:BDSX), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Biodesix, is for revenues of US$37m in 2022, which would reflect a disturbing 50% reduction in Biodesix's sales over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 38% to US$1.75 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$42m and US$1.44 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Biodesix

The consensus price target fell 9.1% to US$16.67, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Biodesix, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 42% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 57% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.5% per year. It's pretty clear that Biodesix's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Biodesix. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

So things certainly aren't looking great, and you should also know that we've spotted some potential warning signs with Biodesix, including dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 3 other concerns we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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