A Fresh Look at Constellation Brands (STZ) Valuation After Recent Share Price Moves

Constellation Brands (STZ) has seen its stock move moderately over the past month, with shares down about 6%. Investors are weighing recent market sentiment around the beverage giant and considering long-term performance trends.

See our latest analysis for Constellation Brands.

Constellation Brands' 1-year total shareholder return is down more than 40%, reflecting more than just this month's market pressure. Despite the recent 4% gain over the past week, overall momentum has faded as investors reassess expectations and weigh new risks against its long-term growth track record.

If you're watching how consumer brands are reacting in these shifting markets, it's a great moment to broaden your perspective and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With recent declines and a sizeable gap to analyst price targets, the question for investors is whether Constellation Brands is now undervalued or if the current price already reflects its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.4% Undervalued

Constellation Brands' most widely tracked fair value estimate stands well above the latest closing price, highlighting a sizable perceived gap in valuation. This outcome sets the stage for debate: are cautious forecasts or underlying business strengths more likely to shape future returns?

Constellation Brands anticipates significant improvements in its Wine & Spirits business post-2025 following the divestiture of mainstream wine brands and related restructuring actions. These actions are expected to yield over $200 million in net annualized cost savings across the enterprise by fiscal '28, which will positively impact operating margins and earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about the assumptions baked into this bullish view? The narrative is fueled by aggressive margin recovery and ambitious restructuring goals, but there are deeper earnings growth dynamics at play. Want to uncover the bold projections and the real math driving this price target? Read on for the inside story behind these numbers.

Result: Fair Value of $176.09 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks such as new tariffs or slower beer sales could undermine these projections and lead to further revisions in future guidance.

Find out about the key risks to this Constellation Brands narrative.

Build Your Own Constellation Brands Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to run your own numbers, you can build a fresh take yourself. Get started in under three minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Constellation Brands research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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