The J. M. Smucker Company

NYSE:SJM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.4b

J. M. Smucker Valuation

Is SJM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SJM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SJM ($110.47) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($356.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SJM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SJM?

Key metric: As SJM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SJM. This is calculated by dividing SJM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SJM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.8x
EarningsUS$745.30m
Market CapUS$11.38b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SJM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SJM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.4x
PPC Pilgrim's Pride
12.4x-11.8%US$12.2b
CAG Conagra Brands
25.7x15.5%US$12.7b
CPB Campbell Soup
22.8x15.0%US$12.8b
HRL Hormel Foods
20.6x10.2%US$16.0b
SJM J. M. Smucker
15.8x9.6%US$11.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SJM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SJM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCEH Global Clean Energy Holdings
2.1xn/aUS$45.02m
SEED Origin Agritech
1.8xn/aUS$14.54m
FAMI Farmmi
1.8xn/aUS$2.81m
IDBH.F Industrias Bachoco. de
0.0002xn/aUS$59.94k
SJM 15.8xIndustry Avg. 19.2xNo. of Companies8PE01020304050+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SJM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the US Food industry average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SJM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SJM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.8x
Fair PE Ratio22.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SJM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SJM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$110.47
US$123.74
+12.0%
4.6%US$134.00US$112.00n/a16
Nov ’25US$112.92
US$124.43
+10.2%
4.6%US$136.00US$112.00n/a16
Oct ’25US$121.21
US$125.30
+3.4%
5.1%US$136.00US$112.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$114.68
US$125.43
+9.4%
5.4%US$136.00US$112.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$119.99
US$126.99
+5.8%
6.1%US$140.00US$114.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$110.51
US$127.43
+15.3%
6.0%US$140.00US$114.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$111.64
US$129.98
+16.4%
5.5%US$140.00US$114.00n/a17
May ’25US$113.60
US$131.96
+16.2%
6.1%US$152.00US$114.00n/a18
Apr ’25US$124.73
US$133.02
+6.6%
7.3%US$152.00US$114.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$122.54
US$133.33
+8.8%
7.5%US$152.00US$114.00n/a17
Feb ’25US$133.74
US$131.09
-2.0%
8.8%US$153.00US$108.00n/a17
Jan ’25US$126.38
US$127.60
+1.0%
7.7%US$140.00US$108.00n/a15
Dec ’24US$111.42
US$126.17
+13.2%
6.8%US$140.00US$109.00n/a12
Nov ’24US$112.99
US$134.46
+19.0%
8.8%US$158.00US$109.00US$112.9213
Oct ’24US$122.91
US$141.00
+14.7%
7.3%US$160.00US$123.00US$121.2113
Sep ’24US$142.49
US$150.77
+5.8%
6.7%US$170.00US$131.00US$114.6813
Aug ’24US$149.67
US$150.71
+0.7%
7.5%US$170.00US$129.00US$119.9914
Jul ’24US$147.67
US$151.07
+2.3%
7.1%US$170.00US$135.00US$110.5114
Jun ’24US$144.90
US$152.57
+5.3%
8.8%US$170.00US$128.00US$111.6414
May ’24US$157.04
US$152.62
-2.8%
9.2%US$170.00US$128.00US$113.6013
Apr ’24US$157.37
US$152.36
-3.2%
9.2%US$170.00US$128.00US$124.7311
Mar ’24US$145.25
US$151.58
+4.4%
9.3%US$170.00US$128.00US$122.5412
Feb ’24US$152.08
US$150.64
-0.9%
9.9%US$170.00US$123.00US$133.7414
Jan ’24US$158.46
US$150.14
-5.2%
9.8%US$170.00US$123.00US$126.3814
Dec ’23US$153.94
US$143.77
-6.6%
8.4%US$162.00US$123.00US$111.4213
Nov ’23US$149.31
US$141.31
-5.4%
9.0%US$160.00US$124.00US$112.9913

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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