When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 19x, you may consider The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (NYSE:SAM) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 44.5x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Boston Beer Company hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
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There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Boston Beer Company's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with earnings down 12% overall from three years ago. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 34% per annum over the next three years. With the market only predicted to deliver 11% each year, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
In light of this, it's understandable that Boston Beer Company's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
The Final Word
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
As we suspected, our examination of Boston Beer Company's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Boston Beer Company that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Boston Beer Company. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Boston Beer Company might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:SAM
Boston Beer Company
Produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States.
Flawless balance sheet and slightly overvalued.