A Look at Altria (MO) Valuation Following Revenue Drop and Shifting Investor Sentiment

Altria Group (MO) just posted its fiscal 2025 Q3 results, showing a decrease in year-over-year revenue even as adjusted earnings per share edged up. The drop in smokeable product revenues has investors re-examining growth prospects.

See our latest analysis for Altria Group.

Despite a solid 12.4% share price return year-to-date, Altria’s stock momentum has cooled in the past three months with a 12.2% decline. This follows several quarters where declining smokeable product volumes worried investors, but the company’s long-term total shareholder returns still stand out. Over the last three years, total returns are up more than 57%, and they have more than doubled over five years. Recent choppiness likely reflects shifting growth expectations as the market weighs ongoing risks against Altria’s history of shareholder value.

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With shares now trading at a discount to analyst price targets and an intrinsic value estimated to be well above current levels, the question arises: Is Altria undervalued after recent declines, or is the market already accounting for potential future growth risks?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.6% Undervalued

With Altria shares last closing at $59.01 and the most followed narrative estimating fair value at $63.83, current levels reflect a meaningful upside in the eyes of consensus analysts. The gap frames a story of cautious optimism, and key catalysts are shaping these expectations.

"Altria leverages strong tobacco margins, growing oral products, strategic marketing, and e-vapor initiatives to drive stable earnings and shareholder value amidst market challenges."

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what’s driving this bullish stance? There is a surprising combination of stable profits, industry shifts, and pricing power behind this fair value. Find out exactly how earnings trends and margin forecasts are fueling analysts’ optimism. This narrative unpacks the financial logic, and you might not guess which factor tips the scale most.

Result: Fair Value of $63.83 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, renewed regulatory scrutiny or intensifying price competition could quickly change the outlook and limit Altria’s valuation upside in the future.

Find out about the key risks to this Altria Group narrative.

Build Your Own Altria Group Narrative

If you have a different view or prefer to dig deeper yourself, the platform lets you build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, so you can Do it your way

A great starting point for your Altria Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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