Is General Mills (NYSE:GIS) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:GIS) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

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When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

What Is General Mills's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of February 2025 General Mills had US$14.2b of debt, an increase on US$12.5b, over one year. However, it also had US$521.3m in cash, and so its net debt is US$13.7b.

A Look At General Mills' Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that General Mills had liabilities of US$7.88b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$15.3b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$521.3m in cash and US$1.79b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$20.9b.

This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$32.6b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

View our latest analysis for General Mills

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

General Mills has net debt to EBITDA of 3.2 suggesting it uses a fair bit of leverage to boost returns. On the plus side, its EBIT was 7.2 times its interest expense, and its net debt to EBITDA, was quite high, at 3.2. Unfortunately, General Mills saw its EBIT slide 2.2% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine General Mills's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, General Mills recorded free cash flow worth 69% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for General Mills was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For example, its net debt to EBITDA makes us a little nervous about its debt. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about General Mills's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for General Mills (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.