Conagra Brands (CAG): Evaluating Valuation as Falling Sales and Returns Raise Investor Caution and Turnaround Hopes

Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) has seen its stock move in response to renewed focus on declining unit sales and lackluster returns on capital. Investors are watching closely as they weigh the company’s high dividend yield and its prospects for a turnaround.

See our latest analysis for Conagra Brands.

Conagra’s share price has stumbled this year, with a year-to-date share price return of -33.25% and a one-year total shareholder return of -33.29%. This reflects market skepticism amid ongoing challenges in unit sales and efficiency. While short-term price recovery suggests pockets of optimism, overall momentum appears to be fading as investors look for clearer signs of a turnaround or sustainable growth.

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With the share price now trading well below analyst targets and a substantial dividend on offer, is Conagra a value play in disguise, or are these problems already reflected in the stock price, leaving little upside?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.2% Undervalued

Conagra Brands' most widely followed narrative points to a fair value estimate of $20.58, suggesting more upside from its last close at $18.47. The stage is set as analysts weigh persistent headwinds alongside signals of stabilization in Conagra’s business model.

The stabilization of supply chain constraints, particularly in the latter half of next year, is expected to improve operational efficiencies and margins, benefiting overall earnings performance. The incremental 53rd week in fiscal '26 presents an opportunity for additional revenue that could positively impact year-over-year comparisons and have a favorable effect on earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

What undisclosed assumptions are pushing this premium price? This narrative assumes margin resilience and a future profit multiple far below industry leaders. But what hidden levers are analysts counting on to bridge the gap between muted growth and an upside price target? Dive in to discover which financial pivots could make all the difference.

Result: Fair Value of $20.58 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent inflation or further supply chain disruptions could quickly undermine the optimism, which may put downward pressure on both margins and earnings.

Find out about the key risks to this Conagra Brands narrative.

Build Your Own Conagra Brands Narrative

If you want your own perspective, or if you see the story differently, you can analyze the data and draft your own narrative in just a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Conagra Brands research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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