Mondelez (MDLZ): Revisiting Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness and Fading Total Returns

Mondelez International (MDLZ) has quietly slipped about 10% over the past 3 months, even as revenue and net income keep growing. That disconnect is exactly what makes the stock interesting now.

See our latest analysis for Mondelez International.

Zooming out, the stock’s 1 year total shareholder return of negative 8.5 percent and 3 year total shareholder return of negative 10.1 percent suggest momentum has been fading as investors reassess valuation against steady but unspectacular growth.

If Mondelez’s recent pullback has you rethinking your watchlist, it might be a good moment to broaden your scope and explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares lagging despite improving earnings and a sizable gap to analyst targets, investors face a key question: Is Mondelez trading at an attractive discount, or is the market already baking in all of its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.2% Undervalued

With Mondelez last closing at $55.80 against a narrative fair value near $69, the story centers on steady growth and firmer margins ahead.

The company is implementing a strategic growth agenda that includes reinvesting in brands, expanding distribution, and strengthening market presence, which should positively impact revenue growth and market share. Mondelez’s focus on innovative brand activations and product collaborations, like the Oreo and Post Malone partnership and Cadbury Dairy Milk with Lotus Bakeries, are expected to enhance consumer engagement and drive revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why a mature snacking giant is being priced like a compounder in waiting? The growth, margin, and multiple math behind that view might surprise you. This perspective examines how modest top line gains, deliberate buybacks, and a richer earnings multiple are combined to support that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $69.02 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer volumes from price sensitive consumers and lingering cocoa cost uncertainty could easily derail that upbeat margin and multiple expansion story.

Find out about the key risks to this Mondelez International narrative.

Build Your Own Mondelez International Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Mondelez International research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, lock in a few fresh opportunities by using the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover stocks that match your strategy and risk profile.

• Capture potential bargains early by scanning these 911 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that the market may be overlooking today.
• Position yourself for the next wave of innovation by targeting these 26 AI penny stocks shaping the future of intelligent technology.
• Strengthen your income stream by focusing on these 15 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that can support long term compounding.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com