Stock Analysis

Investors in Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) have made a respectable return of 69% over the past five years

NasdaqGS:MDLZ
Source: Shutterstock

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) share price is up 51% in the last five years, slightly above the market return. In stark contrast, the stock price has actually fallen 4.2% in the last year.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Mondelez International

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, Mondelez International managed to grow its earnings per share at 1.3% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 9% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:MDLZ Earnings Per Share Growth February 8th 2023

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Mondelez International's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Mondelez International, it has a TSR of 69% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Mondelez International returned a loss of 1.9% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 9.3%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 11%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Mondelez International better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Mondelez International (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.