Is Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) A Risky Investment?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ:KHC) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Kraft Heinz

What Is Kraft Heinz's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Kraft Heinz had US$20.0b of debt at July 2023, down from US$21.1b a year prior. However, it does have US$947.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$19.1b.

A Look At Kraft Heinz's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Kraft Heinz had liabilities of US$8.39b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$32.6b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$947.0m and US$2.24b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$37.8b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$43.3b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Kraft Heinz's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Kraft Heinz has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.1 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 6.0 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Kraft Heinz grew its EBIT by 2.5% in the last year. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Kraft Heinz can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Kraft Heinz recorded free cash flow worth 58% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

While Kraft Heinz's net debt to EBITDA makes us cautious about it, its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities is no better. But its not so bad at converting EBIT to free cash flow. We think that Kraft Heinz's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Kraft Heinz you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.