Highwater Ethanol Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of HEOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HEOL ($15750) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($84034.9)

Is HEOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HEOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HEOL ($15750) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($84034.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HEOL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HEOL?

Key metric: As HEOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HEOL. This is calculated by dividing HEOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HEOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	7.5x
Earnings	US$9.98m
Market Cap	US$74.88m

HEOL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HEOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HEOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12x
BDCO Blue Dolphin Energy	11.6x	n/a	US$46.6m
LKCR.U Lake Area Corn Processors	3.9x	n/a	US$177.7m
FF FutureFuel	6.3x	n/a	US$226.7m
REGX Red Trail Energy	26x	n/a	US$152.6m
HEOL Highwater Ethanol	7.5x	n/a	US$74.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HEOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the peer average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HEOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum	0.09x	n/a	US$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy	0.03x	-10.3%	US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas	n/a	n/a	US$6.00

No more companies available in this PE range

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HEOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HEOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HEOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.5x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HEOL's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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