Exxon Mobil Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The first-quarter results for Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues of US$83b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$2.06, missing estimates by 6.5%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Exxon Mobil's 14 analysts is for revenues of US$358.7b in 2024. This reflects a credible 7.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.2% to US$9.09. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$347.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.08 in 2024. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the slight bump in revenue estimates.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$130, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Exxon Mobil analyst has a price target of US$150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$110. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that Exxon Mobil is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Exxon Mobil. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Exxon Mobil analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Exxon Mobil that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.