Earnings Beat: Exxon Mobil Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$93b arriving 3.8% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$2.14, 5.2% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Exxon Mobil's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$355.0b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 2.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 15% to US$8.88. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$356.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.05 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$133, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Exxon Mobil analyst has a price target of US$156 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$110. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Exxon Mobil's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Exxon Mobil's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$133, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Exxon Mobil analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Exxon Mobil .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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