A Look at Bristow Group's Valuation Following Strong Q3 Results and Raised 2025 Outlook

Bristow Group (NYSE:VTOL) shares moved after the company released its third-quarter results. Earnings per share came in ahead of expectations, and adjusted EBITDA climbed over 10% from the previous quarter.

See our latest analysis for Bristow Group.

Bristow Group's upbeat earnings and increased guidance have put a spotlight on the stock, though investor enthusiasm cooled recently, with a 2.5% decline in the 7-day share price. Looking beyond the short-term pullback, the company still boasts a solid 7% year-to-date share price return. Its three- and five-year total shareholder returns of 43% and 67% respectively underscore a strong long-term trajectory and suggest momentum remains positive over time.

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The question now is whether Bristow Group’s positive momentum and raised outlook mean the stock is undervalued, or if the market has already priced in much of the expected growth. Is this a legitimate buying opportunity, or has optimism run ahead of fundamentals?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.5% Undervalued

The latest consensus puts Bristow Group’s fair value well above the last close price, hinting at untapped upside if forecasts play out as expected. With a discount rate in the 9% range, everything hinges on whether growth levers and market conditions hold. Here is a critical catalyst from the prevailing narrative:

Demand for offshore helicopter transport remains robust as oil and gas companies increase focus on longer-cycle offshore projects. Supported by limited fleet capacity and high utilization rates globally, this environment supports steady top-line growth and firm pricing, which should bolster revenues and margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about the numbers that drive this bullish outlook? There is a bold recipe of margin trends, long-term contracts, and future profit multiples driving the fair value. The whole narrative spells out exactly which future milestones and base assumptions spark that price target. See what is fueling all the optimism.

Result: Fair Value of $47.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent supply chain bottlenecks or rising operating costs could constrain Bristow’s growth trajectory and put pressure on its bottom line in coming years.

Find out about the key risks to this Bristow Group narrative.

Another View: What Does the DCF Say?

While analysts see upside based on earnings and growth multiples, our DCF model gives a much more conservative estimate of Bristow Group's fair value. In fact, it suggests the shares could be overvalued at current prices. How do you weigh these sharply different signals?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Bristow Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 865 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Bristow Group Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, you can easily craft your own view and test your thesis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Bristow Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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