Vista Energy. de (VIST) Stock Overview
Through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 3/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
VIST Community Fair Values
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Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | Mex$73.96 |
| 52 Week High | Mex$81.44 |
| 52 Week Low | Mex$31.63 |
| Beta | -0.51 |
| 1 Month Change | 13.42% |
| 3 Month Change | 25.48% |
| 1 Year Change | 49.99% |
| 3 Year Change | 228.42% |
| 5 Year Change | 1,781.93% |
| Change since IPO | 712.75% |
Recent News & Updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 28
Vista Energy: Solid Q1 Print, Strong 2026 Setup After Equinor Integration
Summary Vista Energy delivered a solid 1Q26, with production flat q/q at 135 kboe/d and adjusted EBITDA of $451m, broadly in line with expectations. Key catalysts ahead include the Equinor asset consolidation from 2Q26 (adding ~22 kboe/d and ~$400m EBITDA in 2026) and higher Brent flowing into Q2 realized prices. VIST raised its 2026 guidance to 158 kboe/d of production, kept capex broadly unchanged, and highlighted strong oil‑price leverage at $85 Brent. Post-Equinor, VIST targets 250 kboe/d by 2030 and $3.0bn in 2026E EBITDA while still trading at a discount vs. peers, implying ~27% upside to consensus PT. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 17
Vista Energy: From Start-Up To Shale Leader In Just 7 Years
Summary Vista is a leading oil and gas producer in Argentina, focused on the Vaca Muerta shale, with top-tier assets, strong execution, and scalable infrastructure. The company delivered 51% YoY production growth in Q4 2024, supported by 25 new wells and increased operational efficiency across its shale oil development hubs. It holds 375 million barrels of proven reserves, 205,600 net acres in Vaca Muerta, and over 1,100 high-potential drilling locations across multiple core assets. Vista trades at just 3.0x forward EV/EBITDA, significantly below sector peers, despite industry-leading margins, robust cash flow, and projected EBITDA growth above 25% annually. With rising exports, low leverage, and a clear growth plan, Vista offers long-term investors exposure to one of the most attractive shale plays outside North America. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 26
Vista Energy: Sound Fundamentals And Valuation Have Room For Expansion
Summary Vista Energy is poised for over 35% production growth in 2025, targeting 150Mboe/d by 2030, driven by efficient shale oil extraction in Argentina's Vaca Muerta basin. The company’s growth strategy hinges on drilling new wells, reducing costs, and improving logistics, aiming for 70% EBITDA margins at current oil prices. Argentina's political risks and midstream capacity constraints pose challenges, but Vista's strong balance sheet and potential for M&A provide growth opportunities. I rate Vista a BUY due to its proven execution, high-growth production, and potential for valuation expansion despite sector-wide discounts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 08
Vista Energy: A Promising Play On The Vaca Muerta Formation
Summary Argentina's investment climate is improving under President Javier Milei, making Vista Energy, a rapidly expanding company in the Vaca Muerta formation, a compelling buy. Vista Energy, founded by former YPF executives, has shown impressive growth since its 2019 NYSE listing, with significant revenue and asset expansion. The company's strategy focuses on reinvesting cash flow into growth, with plans to significantly increase well drilling and production in the Vaca Muerta formation. Despite risks like commodity price volatility and Argentina's unstable history, Vista Energy's valuation remains attractive, making it a reasonable investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 22
Vista Energy: A Growth Play In Vaca Muerta
Summary Vista Energy's robust management and strategic acquisitions have driven significant production growth in the Argentine Vaca Muerta basin since its inception in 2017. The Vaca Muerta basin's productivity surpasses major U.S. basins, positioning Vista as a key player in Argentina's unconventional oil sector. Financial performance from 2018 to 2024 shows remarkable growth, with EBITDA increasing from $195 million to $900 million and proven reserves rising to $3.2 billion. Vista's ROE stands at an impressive 39.35%, well above market averages, highlighting its strong profitability and efficient operations. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 17
Vista Energy: Strong Growth, Big Potential, Fair Value
Summary Vista Energy’s stock price surged 650% over five years, driven by strong operational growth, increased oil production, and expanding global demand, positioning it for continued growth. Q3 2024 results show a 53% YOY revenue increase, with oil production up 53% and adjusted EBITDA rising 37%, highlighting operational efficiency. Vista's investments in Vaca Muerta and global financing strategies, including bond issuance, underpin its long-term growth potential and financial stability. Despite risks like commodity price volatility and debt financing, Vista's strong performance and favorable valuation compared to peers make it a promising investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 20
Vista Energy: Attractive Valuation, Superior Growth Profile For This LATAM Oil Stock
Summary Vista Energy is a high-growth, Vaca Muerta pure play, expected to reach 95k BOED by 2025 and 150k BOED by 2030. The company is nearing self-funding status, potentially enabling debt reduction, dividends, and share buybacks, assuming oil prices stay above US$60bbl. Vista's valuation is attractive with a price target of US$73, driven by a 5x EV/EBITDA multiple, reflecting its superior growth profile. Risks include prolonged low oil prices, export limitations, and potential tightening of Argentina's capital controls, which could impact production and financial performance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 24
Vista's Impressive Execution Continues, But The Stock Is Only Fairly Priced.
Summary Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s 3Q24 results show strong production growth, but transport bottlenecks and rising costs somewhat affect its margins. Production guidance for 2025 increased to 95-100 thousand boe/day, with a long-term goal of 150 thousand boe/day by 2030. Valuation models suggest Vista Energy needs Brent prices between $70-$75 to achieve a 15% yield, considering Argentina's economic instability. Despite potential growth, projecting long-term capital structure and costs is complex, making the current stock price reflect most future positives. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 30
Vista Energy Shows Appealing Growth, Improving Margins
Summary Vista Energy, primarily operating in Argentine shale, shows strong profitability and improving margins, with a P/E ratio of 9.24, making it a value proposition. Despite a moderate debt and low current ratio, Vista Energy's growth relies on oil prices and global economic stability, necessitating heavy investments. The company trades at a high price/book value of 3.17, indicating a premium compared to the sector median and YPF, but justified by profitability. Vista Energy's focus on reducing emissions and recent share repurchases reflect confidence, though its weak cash position limits dividend prospects. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 17
Vista Energy: Production Keeps Growing, But The Stock Has Reached Fair Value
Summary Vista Energy's 2Q24 results show 40% production expansion year over year and 20% quarter over quarter. The company faces challenges with increasing transport costs due to pipeline capacity constraints and regulatory changes in Argentina. Despite strong operational figures, I believe VIST stock is fairly valued and requires high oil prices for an attractive return. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 05
Vista Energia: Best Oil Stock In Latam
Summary Vista Energia (VIST) should execute a 17% shale oil production CAGR through 2030. Argentina's de-risking has made the company and its Vaca Muerta assets highly valuable. Consensus cash earnings growth of over 30% on a cheap valuation of 5.5x P/E (cash) or 0.2x PEG makes the share compelling. Vista cash cost of US$20 BOE provides for cash flow to fund US$1bn yearly capex. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 06
Vista Priced For $65 Oil And No Growth, Still A Buy
Summary Vista Energy is one of Argentina's largest oil producers and exporters, specializing in the Vaca Muerta basin. The company showed operational improvement in FY23, with production growth, cost reduction, and improved gas to total production ratio. Vista has high returns on capital and plans for further growth without the need for debt financing, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 17
Vista Energy: High Growth Oil Play With Low Valuation
Summary Vista Energy, S.A.B de C.V. shows promise in 2024 with a low valuation and strong above-average revenue and earnings growth. Vista is increasing production which is likely to drive growth. Vista Energy has a strong quantity of proven & probable reserves which can drive growth for many years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 28
Vista Energy: A Success Story In The Making
Summary Vista Energy is an oil & gas producer based in Mexico and Argentina. They are currently in the middle of a drilling campaign, which should lead to significant revenue and cash flow improvements. The company is presently trading with a low P/E, and multiple PEGY estimates imply it is undervalued compared to its future growth expectations. I currently rate VIST as a Buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 14
Vista Continues To Offer Margin Of Safety And Is A Buy
Summary VIST is one of the largest producers and largest exporter of Argentinian shale oil from the Vaca Muerta basin. The company has seen huge price appreciation in recent years, but I believe it still offers a margin of safety compared to its earnings potential. The main reason for this is that the company has a very low breakeven cost, of only $27 per barrel, assuming variable SG&A and maintenance CAPEX. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 25
Vista Energy: Great Quarter, Upside Potential Remains
Summary Vista Energy engages in oil and gas exploration in Latin America, with significant assets in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale reserve. Despite slightly lower-than-expected financial results, Vista's improved fundamentals and growth projections support its current valuation. If, within a year, it were to trade at the current EV/EBITDA multiple, the stock should rise 34%. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 15
Vista Energy: No Longer Cheap (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Vista Energy has been a big winner over the past year with shares returning more than 70% in 2023. We like the stock, but shares appear pricey following the big rally next to LATAM energy peers. An accelerated capex requirement may add to earnings volatility and pressure shares over the near term. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 07
Vista Energy Q2 Earnings Preview: The Rally May Be Coming To A Temporary Halt
Summary Vista Energy's share price has more than doubled since October 2022, with Q2 2023 results expected to be released on 13 July. The company's production growth is expected to stall in Q2, with an estimated EPS of US$0.77, approximately 17% lower YoY due to lower oil prices. Despite impressive performance, I believe VIST share price appreciation trajectory will temporarily halt due to considerable multiples expansion and a valuation above its LATAM-focused peers. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 23
Vista Energy Still Has Plenty Of Upside For Long-Term Holders
Summary Forward looking and adaptable, Vista Energy is likely to find long term success. Growing both revenue and income, they should eventually offer a dividend. Plenty of room for the share price to rise as the company matures, they are is still over 40% below sector average. Thesis Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST), is a rapidly growing oil and gas company based in Mexico. With a strong focus on operational efficiency, technological innovation, and strategic acquisitions, Vista Energy is setting itself up for both short term growth and long term success. This company transitioned out of its startup phase over a year ago and they look like they are determined to stay relevant through evolving market conditions. That's one of the most important things I look for in potential long term holds, companies that are adaptive are less likely to lose their already established edges and are more likely to develop new ones. I am assigning a Buy to Vista because they have been steadily growing revenues, are forward thinking, and still have more room to grow as a company. Company Background Vista Energy was founded in 2017 by Miguel Galuccio, who was the former CEO of Argentina's state-owned oil company YPF. In June 2017, they became the first Latin American company to conduct an IPO on the NYSE. The IPO raised $650 million. Vista has acquired several exploration and production contracts for oil and gas fields and continued to expand its operations in Mexico and other Latin American countries, including Argentina and Brazil. The company has been actively pursuing acquisitions of other oil and gas companies with strong potential for future growth, this strategy is already proving successful for Vista Energy. In 2021, the company completed the acquisition of Jaguar Exploration and Production, a leading independent oil and gas company operating in the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. This acquisition was a significant milestone for Vista, as it gave the company a strong foothold in the United States, one of the world's largest oil and gas markets. Vista Energy Proven Reserves (Vista Energy Investor Presentation 2022) In addition to its strategic acquisitions, Vista Energy is also focused on operational efficiency and technological innovation. The company has invested heavily in new technologies and processes that improve efficiency and reduce costs across its operations. This includes the use of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced analytics to optimize drilling, production, and maintenance processes. An Eye Towards Responsible Stewardship Another key factor in Vista Energy's long term viability is its commitment to sustainability. As the world becomes increasingly concerned about the environmental impact of oil and gas production, companies that prioritize sustainability are less likely to slip into irrelevancy. In 2021 the company went through a greenhouse gas reduction initiative with the goal of reducing their emissions by 30%, and has pledged to become carbon neutral by the end of 2026. They work with environmental experts to build healthy ecosystems around their well sites and have initiated a tree planting regime. It is unclear how much land they will need to offset their carbon footprint but this goal is achievable. Long-Term Trends Oil & Gas Market Size is projected to have a CAGR of 5.4% and Reach 252.56 Billion by 2028; for an already mature industry this is a healthy growth rate. The long-term outlook for oil and gas is highly dependent on the pace of energy transition towards renewable energy sources. While it is expected that the demand for oil and gas will eventually decline due to the increasing adoption of renewable energy technologies, the rate of this transition remains uncertain. In the short to medium term, oil and gas prices are likely to remain volatile and subject to a range of economic, political, and environmental factors. Over the long term, macro factors will determine price. If the decline in demand caused by renewables outpaces the decline in available supply due to peak oil, then the price of oil and gas will fall. If the decline in demand caused by renewables fails to outpace the decline in available supply due to peak oil, then the price of oil and gas will rise. Financials In addition to its growth opportunities, Vista Energy also has a strong financial position that should provide support for future investments and expansion. The company has a solid balance sheet with low debt levels, this means it has the flexibility to pursue new acquisitions and investments as opportunities arise. The rate of revenue growth has been outpacing the rate of cost increases. Even though net income varies significantly as the price of the underlying commodities change, the company has been making noticeable improvements that show up in its financials Blake Downer Valuation As of Feb 17, 2023, VIST has a market capitalization of $1.58B, trades at a trailing P/E of 9.94 and had a share price of $17.47. It has a trailing EV/Sales of 1.92, a forward EV/Sales of 1.72, and a Price/Book ratio of 2.10. On their own these numbers don't seem to place the company into either clearly overvalued, or clearly undervalued territory. However, looking at valuation vs cash flow compared to the rest of the sector things become more clear. Trailing EV/EBITDA is only 3.06 which is 48.54% below the average. Forward EV/EBITDA is only 2.59, which is 52.18% below average. Trailing price to cash flow is 2.58, which is 42.41% below the sector average. This company is still undervalued and as it approaches maturity, it will begin offering a dividend and it's valuation will come closer to the sector averages. Vista Energy Valuation (Seeking Alpha) The company has a Seeking Alpha Quant score of 4.91 and has been listed as a strong buy since last August. Vista Energy Ratings (Seeking Alpha) Risks The oil and gas industry is notoriously cyclical, which can impact the company's revenue and earnings. Additionally, there is always the risk of operational issues, including accidents or natural disasters, which can impact production and costs. There are also geopolitical risks that could impact the company's operations. For example, changes in government policy or regulatory environments could impact the company's ability to operate in certain markets. The overall level of conflict in the world affects the insurance premiums for oil tankers and so changes the global price of oil. When conflicts break out in oil producing countries, this effect is amplified. Conversely, peace can cause the price of crude to fall. While I am talking about risks I want to bring up the companies pledge to reach carbon neutral. It is very likely that most Oil & Gas companies are about to spend the next decade or more lobbying against the initiation of a carbon tax. Vista will theoretically never have to pay such a tax and so will view spending money on lobbyists as a waste. Not only have they removed themselves from that risk, the onset of such a tax would only make them more competitive than their peers. Catalysts Looking ahead, Vista Energy has a number of growth opportunities that should continue to drive its success. One key area of focus is the development of its Vaca Muerta shale assets in Argentina. Vaca Muerta is one of the world's largest shale formations and is expected to play a critical role in Argentina's energy future. Vista has already made significant investments in this region, and the company is well positioned to benefit from the growing demand for energy in Argentina and beyond. The company has a strong track record of discovering and developing new reserves, and continues to explore new opportunities for incorporation into its portfolio. By leveraging its operational expertise and cutting-edge technologies, Vista is well positioned to identify and develop new reserves that can drive long-term growth and profitability. This company is the opposite of stagnant, expect more expansion.Seeking Alpha • Jan 19
Vista Energy: Still An Opportunity Despite Recent Appreciation
Summary VIST is a pure play in Argentina's Vaca Muerta unconventional basin. The company has expanded production, driving down operating costs per barrel and increasing efficiencies. My profitability models indicate adequate returns at Brent prices at or above $69, and breakeven at prices below $50. VIST is still investing heavily but has financed most of that investment internally, while also repaying debts, decreasing risks on a downturn scenario. Vista Energy (VIST) is a company that specializes in shale oil production in the Vaca Muerta basin in Argentina. In October 2021, I wrote a bullish article on the company (the first ever published in Seeking Alpha about VIST after its IPO). Since then the stock has returned 160%. In this review, I provide a more complete cost model to anticipate VIST's future earnings. I believe the stock is still undervalued, and that it can still deliver an interesting return at realized oil prices (about 80% of Brent) below $55/barrel. Note: Unless otherwise stated, all information has been obtained from VIST's filings with the SEC. Business description For a more detailed description, please visit my article on VIST from October 2021. Almost pure play on Vaca Muerta shale oil: 90% of VIST's production is oil, and approximately 73% of total production is from unconventional sources. Fast grower: Hydrocarbon production grew 24% YoY in the 9M22 period, and was 100% higher than in the same period of 2020 (50k/boe per day in 3Q22 versus 25k/boe per day in 3Q20). Financing growth internally: unconventional exploitation requires capital because well useful life is low. This is even more true when considering production expansion. For that reason it is not strange to see the enormous levels of CAPEX sustained by VIST in the last few years. Fortunately, these have been mostly internally financed by CFO. Data by YCharts Low leverage and decreasing: As of 3Q22, VIST sustains a debt level of $550 million, paying an average of fixed 5.6%. Against these, it holds to reported $180 million in cash. Unfortunately, the company does not disclose how much of that cash is dollar denominated, and how much is peso denominated. Data by YCharts Low breakeven cost: Total operating costs per barrel have averaged $33 per boe since 3Q20. These costs include depreciation but exclude royalties at the provincial and federal level (at about 13% ad valorem average). With Argentina's export prices (Medanito or Escalante price) averaging 80% of Brent price, this implies a breakeven below $50 at the Brent level. Positive regulatory environment: The Argentinian government is very interested in increasing oil and gas production. This was shown when the current government, considered by many anti-market in many fronts, established a $45 minimum price per barrel for oil exporters during the bear market of 2020. Another example is the preferential taxes for oil exports, at 8% ad valorem, against as much as 35% ad valorem for soybeans. Perspectives are also positive, given that the current government is considered the most leftist in the political spectrum. Argentinian politicians tend to think in mercantilist international trade terms, and therefore most political factions want to increase oil and gas output. Recent developments Production keeps increasing: Quarter after quarter, VIST continues increasing its production of oil and gas, with two to three pads added per quarter. Annualized production at 3Q22 levels should reach 18 million barrel equivalents. Expanding from Bajada del Palo Oeste: VIST's flagship property is called Bajada del Palo Oeste. This property generated more than 90% of the shale production for most of VIST's public history. However, in 2022, another two properties started exploitation at similar productivity levels, Bajada del Palo Este and Aguada Federal. The (probably) higher probed and developed reserves from these two properties have not been communicated yet. Prices have benefited the company: In the last few quarters, VIST has been able to sell at prices around $75 per barrel. It is probable that Q4 prices will come down a little bit, given that oil prices have receded internationally. Still, the company is well above breakeven. Scale efficiencies are showing off: While the average variable cost per barrel stood between $33 and $35 per barrel, in the last two quarters that same cost decreased to $30 per barrel. Warrant conversion eliminates some dilution risks: VIST early investors were granted warrants convertible into 30 million shares (30% of the shares outstanding), at an exercise of $11.5. However, VIST has negotiated a cashless exchange, converting those warrants for 3 million shares, at an equivalent of $9.5 per share. A profitability model Some of the assumptions: A production as-is model, with no new CAPEX for expanded production. Depreciation can be used as a proxy for previous CAPEX because wells are depreciated using barrels produced over total expected production (this means new wells are depreciated faster as their productivity tends to decrease fast). Variable costs of $33 per barrel which includes all operating costs and depreciation, but does not include royalties and sales taxes. Royalties and sales taxes (like Argentinian export taxes) for 15% of revenue. A 35% income tax rate. $40 million in interest expenses, which covers $30 million of a 5.5% average rate on $550 million of debts, plus financing expenses in pesos. Interest expenses should decrease as debt is repaid. With these assumptions, I create a table of expected net income, depending on realized prices per barrel and millions of barrel equivalents produced. Net income as a function of prices and quantities (Own, based on VIST's filings with the SEC) Additionally, this same model allows to understand the company's return on invested capital based on productivity assumptions at the well level. The table below obtains returns based on the model above, but adding two sets of assumptions: one with a cost of $10 million per well and EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) of 1.5 million barrel equivalents, and another one with a cost of $12 million and EUR of 1 million. VIST operated at the $12 million and EUR of 1 million assumption, but the company modified its expectations to the first set on its latest Investor's day. This model does not incorporate depreciation as it is cash based. VIST's ROIC at the well level, based on oil price, well cost and EUR assumptions (Own, based on VIST's filings with the SEC)Seeking Alpha • Dec 12
Vista Energy: A Great Buy To Capture Oil Growth
Summary There is a bull market for energy, which should continue. Smaller companies like Vista Energy have more room on the upside vs. larger companies. Although this company has been covered by analysts, it has not been covered widely enough to impact the price. We have been covering Oil & Gas stocks because, in our view, the future of markets will be partially backed by energy commodities. We are bulls of energy and specifically on smaller companies such as Devon Energy (DVN), W&T Offshore (WTI), and Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST), and we have covered these previously on Seeking Alpha in the past 10 days (See Devon Energy article and W&T Offshore article). Here we are going to lay out a bull argument for Vista Energy. If you don't already have a similar company in your portfolio, this is a strong buy. Let's look at what research is out there first. Research on Vista Energy Vista Energy has been covered well here on Seeking Alpha, from a recent article: Vista Energy is one of Mexico's largest independent oil and gas companies, not including the massive state-owned Pemex. Mexico is also a more prominent global oil producer and a net exporter. Of course, most of the company's production is located in Argentina. In today's precarious global oil market, Latin America's status as a large producing region that is relatively free from US regulatory burdens and relatively neutral geopolitical stances make it a possible "haven" within the global energy market. Unlike most US oil companies, Vista has expanded production and reserves while decreasing per-unit costs over the past two years. See below: Vista Energy financial report Most US oil companies are currently experiencing some tightness as output growth stagnates and production costs soar with inflation. Vista's position is far superior, continuing its growth and efficiency trajectory at a considerable pace. Other authors on Seeking Alpha have provided excellent analysis of this stock as well, such as this one. Also important, there are not analyst sell notes on the stock. It's basically a covered bull argument that's not getting the traction it deserves. Macro Hypothetical What if OPEC was totally cut off from North America? In reality, that's unlikely to happen, but let's engage in a thought experiment. If consumers in North America and allied economies relied on the US, Mexico, and Canada for Oil and Gas, it would certainly make companies like Vista Energy in the spotlight. While that's an extreme example, since the war in Ukraine, buyers have certainly chosen more local options, and especially compared with Russian Oil and/or distribution with Russian involvement. Fundamentals Let's take a look at the chart: Data by YCharts Vista Energy is certainly outperforming some peers, which is a positive sign that Vista Energy is a strong buy. Of course, no one wants to buy the high, so legging into the trade may be wise. For example, if you wanted to invest $100,000 in Vista Energy, the strategy would be to buy now with $50,000 and another $50,000 should it settle back down to the $8 handle. The market cap is $1.1 Billion, but that's also due to a 20% run up in the stock this year, which is slightly more than some of its peers. P/E ratio is $6, but considering the higher price that will affect P/E as well. The company is rapidly expanding, and their overall cost of operations are lower than their peers; not only because they are in Mexico, but it helps. Why Vista Energy and not others For one, the results are fantastic. See for yourself, download the latest financial report: Q3 Financial Report.Seeking Alpha • Nov 09
Vista Energy: A Rare Cheap Growth Opportunity As Crude Oil Shortage Returns
Summary With the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release over and oil production stagnating, oil prices may soon rise dramatically. Latin American oil stocks are attractive due to their diversified currency risks and lower valuations. Vista Energy is particularly attractive due to its high expansion pace and low operating costs compared to US peers. VIST trades at a roughly 50% discount to its US peers despite positive changes in Argentina's oil industry. If oil renews its bullish path, I believe VIST will outperform dramatically due to its considerable discount and growth pace. After the largest drawdown of the US Strategic Oil Reserve in history, the Biden administration recently sold its final batch of oil products. The administration may pursue more sales if deemed necessary, but with the reserve at its lowest level in around fifty years, it is unlikely significant releases will continue. With this in mind, a sizeable portion of the US crude oil supply will now be off the market. Given that US and global oil production remains depressed, the commercial oil supply will likely return to a deficit. The price of crude oil is closely correlated to commercial inventory levels, measured as US oil stocks excluding SPR. Commercial inventories were extremely low during the beginning of 2022, but have risen slightly over the last seven months amid the substantial declines in SPR reserves. While the commercial market has been in a small glut, overall US oil reserves (both commercial and SPR) have declined steadily since 2021. See below: Data by YCharts Over the coming weeks and months, I expect a sharp decline in commercial crude oil inventories as the SPR no longer acts as an artificial supply source. US continental oil production peaked in July and has shown some signs of decreasing as shale drilling activity hits a wall. Global oil production levels update much slower, but remain well below pre-2020 levels and may also stagnate or decline amidst OPEC+ cuts and global labor woes. See below: Data by YCharts Oil producers must maintain high drilling activity rates to maintain output levels as new oil wells experience a significant decline in production during their first two years after drilling. The US, in particular, has a large supply of "young" wells today, meaning significant new drilling is necessary to maintain a flat production level. The stagnation in the US rig count implies that it is unlikely. Given the immense decline in drilled-but-uncompleted wells, it seems improbable oil production will rise and possible it may continue to slip (despite being depressed). President Biden recently stated his opposition to drilling, though his view wavers. Oil market data from recent weeks and months has indicated a potential decline in oil output just as the SPR release ends. Since oil demand remains relatively high, this situation may cause crude oil to enter another decisive phase higher. Many US oil producers are attractive stocks today. Still, given regulatory concerns and the strength of the US dollar, foreign oil producers, such as Mexico-based Vista Energy (VIST), may be better bets. Discount Opportunity in Vista Energy Vista Energy is one of Mexico's largest independent oil and gas companies, not including the massive state-owned Pemex. Mexico is also a more prominent global oil producer and a net exporter. Of course, most of the company's production is located in Argentina. In today's precarious global oil market, Latin America's status as a large producing region that is relatively free from US regulatory burdens and relatively neutral geopolitical stances make it a possible "haven" within the global energy market. Unlike most US oil companies, Vista has expanded production and reserves while decreasing per-unit costs over the past two years. See below: Vista Energy Investor Presentation 2022 (Vista Energy Investor Relations) Most US oil companies are currently experiencing some tightness as output growth stagnates and production costs soar with inflation. Vista's position is far superior, continuing its growth and efficiency trajectory at a considerable pace. VIST ranks exceptionally well on financial metrics with one of the highest Quant scores in the entire stock market, receiving an A in valuation, momentum, growth, and earnings revisions. Many oil stocks stand out due to their abnormally low valuations and high margins today, but Vista's objective metrics are generally superior. Even more, its forward "P/E" is a very low 4.6X, half that of the industry median at ~9X. The stock is also among very few oil companies to rise in value since spring despite substantial declines in the price of oil. Both its cash flow and book value per share have also increased materially this year. See below: Data by YCharts Based on objective metrics, Vista appears to be a solid energy company far cheaper than most in the US. Furthermore, while Vista is much younger than most, it is proliferating and will likely continue to do so as its numerous projects are completed. Fundamentally, it is in a counter-cyclical position to the US oil industry, which saw immense growth during the 2010s (leading to glut dynamics and low prices), followed by stagnation today (creating deficits and high prices). In my view, this situation puts Vista in a great position because it is growing during a period when most producers are not, allowing it to capitalize tremendously on higher prices. The stock has risen dramatically this year, but I believe it may eventually double again as its valuation rises toward that of most US peers. Key Risks Facing Vista Latin American oil producers generally trade at lower valuations due to perceived "political risks." Argentina is seen as particularly risky due to its historically anti-foreign business attitude and its out-of-control inflation rate. Argentina's inflation has worsened to 80% YoY this year and has raised interest rates to be at a similar level to slow it down. Fortunately, because Vista is an oil producer, it is not directly exposed to inflation and may experience some positive consequences due to its negative impact on Argentina's exchange rate (generally lowering operating costs in US dollar terms). That said, the social ramifications of hyperinflation do pose a risk, as they could result in labor unrest or a shift away from its relatively pro-business government. Unlike the US, Argentina has also increased its oil production dramatically above pre-2020 levels. The country's total oil output remains well below its 2000s peak, indicating Vista may have ample opportunities for growth if Argentina continues to allow licenses. While Argentina is historically prone to political risk, its negative economic situation may promote efforts to open the doors to more significant foreign investment and development to mitigate the strain. In reality, it is unclear if the political risks facing Vista are more significant than those facing US companies. Argentina is looking to increase oil production, while the Biden administration is outwardly opposed to drilling. In light of trends suggesting lower US oil output and the end of SPR withdrawals, the possibility of materially higher oil prices looms. As such, I believe investing in oil companies in countries with fewer anti-oil views is wise. That is not to say reliance on fossil fuels is good, but adequate production is a social necessity as long as that reliance exists. Argentina, despite its past, appears to be attentive to these trends and is looking to boost production accordingly, likely to the benefit of Vista energy. Of course, Vista faces other risks similar to most oil companies. Oil prices could decline if the global economy continues to slow. I believe a decline in oil demand is possible, but trends suggesting output reduction largely offset this risk. That said, if the US, OPEC, or Russia decide to take measures to increase production, then oil prices could decline. For now, a rise in global output seems unlikely due to OPEC+'s resistance to US oil policy and the US's falling drilling activity.Seeking Alpha • Oct 19
Vista Energy: A Lucrative Growth Story
Summary Oil prices seem to have found support at current levels. Vista Energy delivered impressive results in Q2'22. The company is on the path to nearly double its production by 2026. The share price looks cheap, but comes with a lot of political risk. The currently ongoing energy crisis have shown that reliable energy, such as oil is needed more than ever. At the same time, the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the supply cuts by OPEC+ members have made the situation more difficult. One of the keys for increased supply may be hidden in the Neuquen province of Argentina, where the Vaca Muerta shale formation is located. One of the companies with exposure to that is Vista Energy (VIST). The company is on the path of impressive production growth and plans to nearly double its production by 2026. Yet, operating in Argentina comes with a plethora of risks. The country is amongst the least free economies in the world and domestic oil prices are kept artificially low, preventing oil companies to fully reap the benefits of high international prices. Nevertheless, at forward EV/Adj. EBITDA of just 1.8, it looks as an attractive opportunity for those, willing to stomach the political risk. Oil market outlook Since the beginning of 2020, oil markets have been on a rollercoaster ride. After the world entered into a lockdown in March-April 2020, oil prices fell sharply and even entered negative territory for a while. However, as it became clear that the world is not going to an end and that fossil fuels are not going away anytime soon, the price started moving upwards. As inflation started to rage and Russia began its invasion in Ukraine, the US government took a historic decision to release 1M barrels of oil each day in order to curtail gas prices. Prior to 2022, there has been only three occasions when reserves from the SPR were released, since it was established in 1975 – in 1991 (due to the Gulf war), in 2005 (Hurricane Katrina) and in 2011 (supply disruptions in Libya). US SPR stocks and WTI price (US EIA) As a result, US SPR stocks have depleted almost 30% since March to their lowest level in 38 years. And the effects on oil prices were not that great, either. Granted, oil has dipped below the US$120 area towards the US$90s, but the decline probably has more to do with interest rate hikes and the fears that the global economy mas slow down as a result. I’m skeptical regarding the prospects of how high interest rates will be allowed to go to or even the sustainability of the current levels for a considerable amount of time as explained here. Moreover, the last releases from the US’ SPR should be finishing in November and there were signals that the government is looking to refill the reserves at prices around US$80/barrel. OPEC+ has also send a very clear message that the organization is ready to defend current oil prices by announcing a production cut. Global E&P CAPEX (Evercore ISI) Looking at the CAPEX of the industry, it’s well below the peak levels from 2012-2013, as a decade long efforts to vilify fossil fuels have yielded fruit. Since the future before oil companies is uncertain and there’s the risk that they could be regulated out of existence, especially in Europe, a bigger portion of the free cash flow streams are put towards shareholder return programs, instead of investment. That being said, I think that oil prices will remain elevated and will hardly fall significantly below the current levels for a considerable amount of time. Company overview Vista Energy is an independent oil and gas company registered in Mexico, but with the vast majority of its assets located in the famous shale formation Vaca Muerta in Argentina. The company is licensed to operate within 5 blocks with spanning over a total of 183.1k acres. Vaca Muerta (Vista Energy) The Vaca Muerta shale formation is touted as the second largest shale formation in the world and is expected to reach production rate of over 300kBOE/day towards the end of 2022. Besides Vista, significant presence in the area have oil major such as Shell (SHEL), Chevron (CVX), Equinor (EQNR) and YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF), which is majority owned by the Argentinian government. I see the presence of such large players as a positive, since it somewhat reduces risk. Capital structure and ownership As of 30 June 2022, the company has 86.5M shares outstanding, down from 88.6M in the beginning of the year, due to the implementation of a share buyback procedure under which a bit over 2.8M shares were bought. The company has also around 100M warrants outstanding, which are exercisable at 11.50 per share with the surrender of three warrants per share. However, the Warrant Holder’s meeting recently approved an alternative exercise mechanism, allowing for the cashless conversion of 31 warrants to 1 share. While the existing mechanism will still be available, the new one, if preferred by the warrant holders could lead to the issuance of up to 90.32% less shares. The company had US$603M debt on its balance sheet at the end of Q2’22, but it likely fell to US$528M, following some principal repayments as suggested in the Q2 results presentation. According to the 2021 annual report, the biggest shareholder in the company with 17.11% beneficial ownership through 12.5M shares and 10M warrants is Kensington Investments – a wholly owned subsidiary of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The CEO of Vista Energy – Miguel Galuccio is reported to have a beneficial ownership of 8.94% as of 31 December 2021, through a combination of shares, warrants and options. This is quite high exposure and implies considerable skin in the game. Strong performance in Q2’22 Vista Energy's Q2'22 results (Vista Energy) The company’s performance in Q2’22 was nothing short of spectacular, exceeding earnings expectations by 77.4%. Besides the results’ snapshot, it’s important to note the dynamic of the domestic market sales and exports. In Q2’22 the latter amounted to 42%, up from 33% in Q1’22. This had major implications for the average realized price, since domestic prices in Argentina are kept artificially low at around US$60 per barrel, which prevents the companies to take the full benefit of high international prices. As a result, the average realized price in Q2’22 was US$78.4/barrel (+22.3% QoQ). The company doesn’t engage in hedging, but it usually sells around 2 months forward its production with the CEO hinting that one of the three cargoes expected in Q3’22 was sold for US$113/barrel. As a result, I expect another very strong quarter, despite the weakness of international oil prices in September, which will likely be reflected in Q4’22. Regarding the balance sheet, the VIST ended the second quarter with about US$251.1M of cash and equivalents, which results in a net debt position of US$351.5M. The net leverage ratio, calculated by dividing net debt by TTM Adj. ABITDA fell to 0.6, compared to 1.7 a year ago. Ambitious expansion plan Vista Energy's growth plan (Vista Energy) The company is onto a significant growth trajectory with daily production expected to reach 52kBOE, according to the last earnings call. This implies 16.1% increase from Q2’22 and 26.8% YoY. The growth plan envisions extraction of 80kBOE/day in 2026, which is almost double the result from 2021. As production increases, the share of exports is expected to increase as well, as the needs of the domestic market would be fully satisfied and the rest will end up on the international market. This will be another positive for the company, as the average realized price will increase, even if market prices remain unchanged. Note, that the budgeting of the expansion plan is done under assumed average realized price of US$60/barrel, which is a lot lower that the current one. If prices remain elevated and strong cash flow generation continues, the share buyback may be continued in 2023, according to the earnings call. Regarding the expansion, recently VIST signed an agreement with Trafigura to jointly develop 20 wells in the Vaca Muerta shale formation. The total amount invested will be US$150M with VIST covering 75% of it and subsequently having 75% rights over the production. In addition, 380kBOE of oil per month will be sold to Trafigura in H1’23, which will then be reduced to 345kBOE/month in H2’23. While on one hand this agreement will help with the funding of the expansion plan, the sale to Trafigura is likely going to be on inferior than international market prices. Share price and valuation Data by YCharts Looking at the share price, the YTD performance is impressive with return of 117.3%, exceeding the broad US market, represented by SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) and even the oil-linked United States Oil ETF (USO). However, looking at the sector comparison, the company still looks relatively cheap in every available metric. Not to mention, that given the expected significant growth in production, all else being equal, the company should trade at a premium. Vista Energy Vs. sector (Seeking Alpha) In addition, I estimate Adjusted EBITDA of around US$950M for 2023, assuming average annual production of 55kBOE/day and average realized price around US$70/barrel. This figure is comparable to the current market cap of around US$1B and is around 1.4x EV. Regarding the 2022F EV/Adj. EBITDA, using the guidance figure for the denominator of US$750M, the ratio comes at 1.8, which also looks cheap. While the Argentinian peer, YPF appears even cheaper with more attractive ratios, it has to be taken into account that the government holds the majority stake in it, which is a major risk, absent from VIST. In addition I see the presence of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi as the largest shareholder as a plus in the case of Vista Energy, since an attack on the company could also have geopolitical implications.Seeking Alpha • Aug 12
Vista Energy: Shares Climb Above Resistance Following A Strong EPS Beat
Global energy equities have rebounded sharply from a June and July drubbing. Mexico-based Vista Energy trades at a cheap valuation with solid adjusted EPS growth. The stock surged and successfully held support following a Q2 earnings beat. Global energy stocks have had quite a year so far. The iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) is up a solid 34% in 2022, but that has not come without volatility. The fund was up 55% at its peak but then sunk amid a bear market in June and July to be higher by just 17% for the year. In the last month, though, global energy names are back on the mend. IXC has beaten the iShares All-Country World Ex-U.S. ETF (ACWX) since mid-July. Global Energy Shares Rebound From A Steep June-July Drop StockCharts.com One Mexico-based energy stock is up huge over the last few weeks thanks to an impressive EPS beat and annual profit climb. According to Seeking Alpha, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183,100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proven reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V., and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico. The $748 million market cap Energy sector stock in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry does not pay a dividend and trades at a very cheap 5.45 trailing 12-month P/E ratio, according to The Wall Street Journal. The industry average P/E is higher at 8.8. VIST reported Q2 2022 earnings on July 26. The Mexican firm crushed EPS expectations with an impressive $0.93 of adjusted per-share profits. The consensus forecast was just $0.43, per I/B/E/S data. EPS in the same quarter a year ago was just $0.20. Free cash flow was an impressive $62.6 million in Q2, according to the company's 10-Q report. Vista Energy Quarterly Report: Profit Summary Vista Energy SEC Filing The company trades at just 0.7 times next year's sales, historically low for the stock, too. VIST: Historical Price to Sales Ratio Koyfin Charts Vista's corporate event calendar is light until its Q3 2022 earnings date unconfirmed for Tuesday, October 25 after the closing bell, according to data provider Wall Street Horizon. Vista Corporate Event Calendar Wall Street Horizon The Technical Take VIST shares found resistance near the $10 market a few times earlier this year during the big resource-sector bull market. When money fled the Energy and Materials areas in June, VIST sunk. The stock dropped about 40% to a July nadir just below $6. Around its July 26 second-quarter earnings report, shares soared. The stock rose from under $6 to near $7 in advance of the small-cap's profit report. Once positive earnings news hit the tape, buyers aggressively scooped up shares. VIST settled above $8 on July 27, above critical resistance from its June rebound high. Shares then held that level on a retest earlier this month.Seeking Alpha • Jul 26
Vista Oil & Gas Non-GAAP EPS of $0.93, revenue of $294.3M
Vista Oil & Gas press release (NYSE:VIST): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.93. Revenue of $294.3M (+78.1% Y/Y). Total production was 44,825 boe/d, a 12% increase compared to Q2 2021. Oil production in Q2 2022 increased 17% y-o-y to 36,899 bbl/d, mainly driven by solid well performance in Bajada del Palo Oeste and in the 2-well pilot in Bajada del Palo Este.Seeking Alpha • May 30
Vista Energy: A Winning Undercovered Energy Play
Vista Energy has grown its production by 79% and reduced its lifting cost by almost 50% since 2018. Its revenue growth has surpassed the commodity price growth with production increases and organic growth. The company has ambitious goals for the next 4 years, which are likely to be achieved within the guided timeline. The company operates in a risky environment but is dripping with potential. I am bullish on the stock for the long term because of its long-term sustainable growth prospects.Seeking Alpha • Mar 11
Vista Oil & Gas: Oil Price Increase, Production Increase, And Large Partners
With many investors looking for oil and gas plays to profit from recent increases in the oil price, Vista Oil & Gas will likely receive more and more attention. The company expects to report a total of 24 shale oil wells, 20% production increase, 2022 EBITDA of $550-$575 million, and capital expenditures of $375-$400 million. Under my best case scenario, Vista’s fair price should be close to $19, which is much higher than the current price mark.Seeking Alpha • Oct 14
Vista Oil & Gas Has Value And Little Downside Risk
The company operates in one of the most competitive, complex and risky segments of the oil industry (P&E). It is now producing record profits with oil also on its 5 year high. However, below $45 a barrel, the company is not even operationally profitable, and it has to pay 50 million a year in interest. Conversely, if oil prices keep rising, Vista can easily provide returns above 10%. It has the advantage of operating in the very attractive Vaca Muerta basin in Argentina.Shareholder Returns
| VIST | US Oil and Gas | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -2.7% | 1.3% | -2.7% |
| 1Y | 50.0% | 31.0% | 22.5% |
Return vs Industry: VIST exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 30.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: VIST exceeded the US Market which returned 22.7% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| VIST volatility | |
|---|---|
| VIST Average Weekly Movement | 7.0% |
| Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement | 6.1% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.6% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: VIST has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: VIST's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 584 | Miguel Galuccio | vistaenergy.com |
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company’s principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. Fundamentals Summary
| VIST fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$7.90b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$743.98m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$2.90b |
10.7x
P/E Ratio2.7x
P/S RatioIs VIST overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| VIST income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$2.90b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$544.49m |
| Gross Profit | US$2.36b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.61b |
| Earnings | US$743.98m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 7.07 |
| Gross Margin | 81.23% |
| Net Profit Margin | 25.65% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 140.1% |
How did VIST perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/08 13:37 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. is covered by 18 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Matias Cattaruzzi | AdCap Securities Argentina S.A. |
| Leonardo Marcondes | BofA Global Research |
| Gustavo Sadka | Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários |