Matador Resources (MTDR): Evaluating Valuation After Record Production and Upgraded 2025 Guidance

Matador Resources (MTDR) recently reported record oil and gas production for the third quarter, outpacing its own guidance and boosting its full-year production outlook. The company’s latest operational achievements caught investor attention.

See our latest analysis for Matador Resources.

Matador Resources’ operational momentum and ambitious growth plans contrast with its recent share price performance. Despite record production wins, a completed buyback program, and new natural gas agreements positioning the company for improved long-term returns, the share price has retreated over the past year. Matador’s 1-year total shareholder return is down 21.6%, and its share price has dropped more than 32% year-to-date. This overshadows its impressive 5-year total shareholder return of 544%. Short-term volatility may be masking underlying value as the company executes on expansion and operational strength.

If you’re curious about what’s driving other high-momentum companies, now’s a great moment to broaden your perspective and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With the stock trading at a significant discount to analyst price targets despite strong production and growth moves, investors must now ask whether Matador Resources is undervalued or if the market has already accounted for its future gains.

Most Popular Narrative: 33.9% Undervalued

Matador Resources' most popular narrative suggests its fair value sits significantly above the current market price, highlighting the scale of the perceived discount by analysts. While the last close was $39.46, the fair value estimate offered by this narrative lands at $59.72, suggesting an opportunity if its projections hold up.

Expanding midstream capacity and third-party volumes (with the Marlan plant ramping toward full utilization and high third-party repeat business) is set to deliver incremental, fee-based revenues and improve overall net margins. This would make Matador less reliant on commodity prices and support sustained earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what powers this much higher valuation? The narrative leans heavily on future margin expansion and recurring revenue streams that most investors are overlooking. One key variable in the model could turn ordinary forecasts on their head. Dive into the full narrative to see the financial drivers and bold assumptions that push Matador’s fair value so far beyond its current price.

Result: Fair Value of $59.72 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, concentrated operations in the Delaware Basin and persistent commodity volatility could quickly challenge these bullish expectations. This may introduce fresh uncertainty to Matador’s outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Matador Resources narrative.

Build Your Own Matador Resources Narrative

If you want to look past consensus or dive into your own discovery process, you can quickly shape your own view of Matador’s prospects. Get started in just minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Matador Resources research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for Your Next Smart Move?

Don’t limit your investing horizons to one opportunity when innovative companies are reshaping industries every day. Make your research go further and catch the trends others might miss.

• Uncover real-world disruption with these 26 AI penny stocks and target companies transforming automation, data, and machine intelligence.
• Tap into powerful income opportunities by checking out these 22 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, featuring stocks with yields above 3% for stronger cash flow potential.
• Seize a potential early lead in emerging payments and decentralization by exploring these 81 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks for businesses innovating with cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com