Will Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) New CFO Recalibrate the Balance Between Growth Investment and Shareholder Returns?

• Marathon Petroleum has appointed Maria A. Khoury as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective January 19, 2026, succeeding John J. Quaid after a transition period.
• Khoury’s blend of oil and gas, life sciences, and global finance experience positions her to influence Marathon’s capital allocation and risk management approach in meaningful ways.
• We’ll now examine how bringing in a globally experienced CFO from Danaher could influence Marathon Petroleum’s investment narrative and capital priorities.

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Marathon Petroleum Investment Narrative Recap

To own Marathon Petroleum, you need to believe that refined products can remain cash generative for longer than many expect, while management keeps capital returns disciplined despite softening near term margins and a high debt load. The CFO change itself does not materially alter the key short term catalyst, which is how refining margins evolve relative to capacity cuts, nor the biggest risk, which is long term demand pressure from electrification and decarbonization.

The most relevant recent announcement is Marathon’s roughly 10% dividend increase to US$1.00 per share, alongside US$926 million returned in Q3 2025 through dividends and buybacks. This capital return profile sits squarely in the spotlight of a new, globally experienced CFO, and will be watched closely against the backdrop of potentially softer refining margins and the company’s leverage.

Yet behind these headline moves, investors should be aware of how a fossil fuel focused capital plan could limit flexibility if...

Read the full narrative on Marathon Petroleum (it's free!)

Marathon Petroleum's narrative projects $123.8 billion revenue and $4.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 2.6% yearly revenue decline and about a $2.1 billion earnings increase from $2.1 billion today.

Uncover how Marathon Petroleum's forecasts yield a $201.33 fair value, a 20% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four members of the Simply Wall St Community see fair value for Marathon Petroleum anywhere between about US$201 and US$517 per share, underlining how far opinions can stretch. As you weigh those views, keep in mind that the core risk many analysts flag is long term pressure on fossil fuel demand, which could test the durability of today’s refining focused business model.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Marathon Petroleum - why the stock might be worth just $201.33!

Build Your Own Marathon Petroleum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Marathon Petroleum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Marathon Petroleum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Marathon Petroleum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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