Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Valuation: What Strong Revenue Growth Means for Investors After Latest Results

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has drawn investor attention after its latest quarterly report revealed a year-over-year revenue increase that topped Wall Street estimates. This highlights the company’s ability to generate sales growth amid market expectations.

See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum.

Marathon Petroleum’s share price momentum has picked up notably this year, with a 34.7% year-to-date gain. This reflects revived optimism after its upbeat revenue results. Over the past year, investors have enjoyed a robust 22.95% total shareholder return, adding to impressive long-term gains and suggesting confidence in the company’s growth potential.

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But with shares steadily climbing and the latest results exceeding forecasts, the question now becomes whether Marathon Petroleum is trading below its true value or if the market has already taken the company’s future growth prospects into account.

Most Popular Narrative: 3.5% Undervalued

With the most widely followed narrative setting fair value for Marathon Petroleum slightly above its latest close, the calculated gap points to a measured undervaluation. This perspective emerges from combining long-term profit forecasts, shifting industry trends, and analyst consensus about the company’s future earning power and resilience.

Structural industry capacity reductions, especially on the U.S. West Coast with peer refinery closures, are causing regional product shortages. Marathon's investments in efficiency, reliability, and emissions reduction at its LA refinery are expected to improve utilization and allow capture of higher margins and revenues in increasingly supply-constrained markets.

Read the complete narrative.

There’s a bold set of forecasts hidden underneath this fair value. The narrative hinges on surprising shifts in operating margins, capital discipline, and market-implied profit multiples. Want to see which aggressive assumptions could support Marathon Petroleum’s valuation premium? The full story reveals the numbers and logic that drive this target price.

Result: Fair Value of $197.5 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain, particularly if accelerating EV adoption or stricter environmental policies meaningfully reduce demand. This could pressure Marathon's refining margins and future growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Marathon Petroleum narrative.

Build Your Own Marathon Petroleum Narrative

Not convinced by the consensus or want to put your own spin on the numbers? You can build a custom view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Marathon Petroleum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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