Marathon Petroleum (MPC): Valuation Check as Maria Khoury Steps In as New CFO

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is back in focus after naming Maria A. Khoury as its next Chief Financial Officer, a leadership move that could subtly reshape how investors think about the stock.

See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum.

The CFO announcement lands after a choppy stretch, with a roughly 14% 1 month share price return decline from about $195 to $168.32, even as the 1 year total shareholder return of 29% and 5 year total shareholder return of 365.55% still point to strong long term momentum.

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With shares now trading at a steep headline discount to some valuation models and nearly 20% below the average analyst target, the key question is whether this pullback signals a fresh buying opportunity or if markets are already pricing in Marathon Petroleum's next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 16.4% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value set around $201.33 against Marathon Petroleum's last close at $168.32, the framework implies meaningful upside if its long term roadmap holds.

Strategic portfolio optimization, including high-return refinery "quick hit" projects and ongoing expansion in midstream logistics/NGL infrastructure (such as the Northwind Midstream acquisition), are enhancing operational flexibility and supporting incremental improvement in net margins and long-term cash flow generation.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why modest revenue shrinkage can still support a richer valuation? The narrative leans on sharper margins, rising earnings power, and a punchy future multiple. Curious how those moving parts combine into that higher fair value?

Result: Fair Value of $201.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on robust refining margins remaining intact. Faster than expected EV adoption or stricter carbon rules could quickly compress demand and earnings.

Find out about the key risks to this Marathon Petroleum narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

On earnings, the picture is murkier. Marathon trades at about 17.6 times earnings, richer than the US Oil and Gas industry at 12.8 times. It is below peer averages near 28.6 times and its own fair ratio of 20.9 times, leaving investors to weigh upside against multiple compression risk.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Marathon Petroleum Narrative

If this framework does not quite fit your view or you prefer hands on research, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Marathon Petroleum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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