How Investors Are Reacting To Kinder Morgan (KMI) Spotlighting Its $9.3 Billion Natural Gas Pipeline Backlog

• In late November 2025, Mizuho highlighted Kinder Morgan's substantial US$9.3 billion project backlog, with US$8.4 billion tied to natural gas, following the company’s third-quarter earnings report that saw a modest EPS miss but better-than-expected revenue.
• An important insight is Mizuho’s increased medium- and long-term growth expectations for Kinder Morgan, citing upgraded forecasts for 2025–2029 and considerable confidence in the future contributions from its natural gas project pipeline.
• We'll now assess how Kinder Morgan's reinforced project backlog and growth outlook could influence its overall investment narrative.

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Kinder Morgan Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Kinder Morgan shareholder, you typically need to believe in sustained North American natural gas demand and the company’s ability to turn its large project backlog into steady contractual cash flows. The recent US$9.3 billion backlog highlighted by Mizuho supports the current growth outlook but does not significantly alter the main short-term catalyst: execution on expansion projects, or the greatest risk, Kinder Morgan’s high leverage, which continues to constrain financial flexibility. Among Kinder Morgan’s latest announcements, the recurring quarterly dividend increase stands out, with the Q3 2025 payout rising 2% over last year. This steady dividend policy is especially relevant as it reflects management’s confidence in future cash flows, which are closely tied to project completion and utilization, key catalysts given current expansion plans. Yet, it’s important for investors to remember that, despite upgraded growth expectations, Kinder Morgan’s financial flexibility remains limited by its...

Read the full narrative on Kinder Morgan (it's free!)

Kinder Morgan's narrative projects $20.2 billion revenue and $3.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.2% yearly revenue growth and a $1.0 billion increase in earnings from $2.7 billion today.

Uncover how Kinder Morgan's forecasts yield a $31.06 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members’ fair value estimates for Kinder Morgan range from US$31.06 up to US$49.19, based on 3 forecasts. Many see the robust project backlog as a driver, but views differ widely on future returns, explore the diversity of opinion for a fuller picture.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Kinder Morgan - why the stock might be worth as much as 80% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Kinder Morgan Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Kinder Morgan research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Kinder Morgan research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Kinder Morgan's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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