EQT (EQT): Assessing Valuation After a 50% Shareholder Return and Recent Price Consolidation

EQT (EQT) shares have delivered a solid performance over the past year, returning nearly 50%. Investors are watching closely to see whether the company can maintain this momentum as market conditions shift.

See our latest analysis for EQT.

After a strong rally over the last year with a 50% total shareholder return, EQT’s share price has steadied at $55.76 as investors digest upbeat earnings and shifting energy market dynamics. While the recent momentum appears to be settling, the long-term gains suggest confidence in the company's fundamentals and growth outlook.

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With shares still trading below some analyst price targets and solid earnings backing the company, the key debate now is whether EQT remains undervalued or if the recent rally means future growth is already reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.2% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, EQT is currently trading below fair value, with its last closing price of $55.76 sitting well under the updated estimate of $62.80. This disconnect is supported by confidence in EQT’s forward strategy, though it comes with high expectations for growth and operational execution.

“The ramp-up of large-scale, long-term (20-year) natural gas supply contracts to new AI data centers and power generation facilities in Appalachia, beginning in 2027 and 2028, positions EQT to capture outsized in-basin demand growth from electrification and digital infrastructure. This creates predictable, high-quality revenue and substantially increases upstream and midstream free cash flow.”

Read the complete narrative.

What is fueling this bullish view? Behind the headline fair value is a bold set of profit and revenue projections that reach into the future. The entire case hinges on EQT meeting aggressive earnings targets and profit margins that are typically reserved for market leaders, not commodity producers. Which financial leaps of faith are essential for this call? Unlock the details and see why these assumptions have caught Wall Street’s attention.

Result: Fair Value of $62.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the outlook could change if demand for natural gas falters or if regulatory pressures increase, which could challenge EQT’s projections for sustained margin expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this EQT narrative.

Build Your Own EQT Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to analyze these numbers first-hand, you can quickly build your own thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding EQT.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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