Excelerate Energy, Inc. Just Recorded A 11% Revenue Beat: Here's What Analysts Think

Shareholders of Excelerate Energy, Inc. (NYSE:EE) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to US$21.42 following its latest annual results. It was a mildly positive result, with revenues exceeding expectations at US$2.5b, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.51 were in line with analyst forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Excelerate Energy after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Excelerate Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the twin analysts covering Excelerate Energy, is for revenues of US$1.22b in 2023, which would reflect a stressful 51% reduction in Excelerate Energy's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 142% to US$1.23. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.64b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.76 in 2023. There's been a definite change in sentiment after these results, with the analysts delivering a a stressful to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time substantially upgrading EPS. It's almost as though the business is anticipated to reduce its focus on growth to enhance profitability.

There's been no real change to the average price target of US$30.57, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 51% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 53% over the last three years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 6.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that Excelerate Energy's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Excelerate Energy's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for next year, and forecasts imply the business' revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$30.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Excelerate Energy going out as far as 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Excelerate Energy you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.