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Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) delivers shareholders incredible 46% CAGR over 5 years, surging 6.9% in the last week alone
For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. To wit, the Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE:DVN) share price has soared 391% over five years. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 17% gain in the last three months.
The past week has proven to be lucrative for Devon Energy investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years of share price growth, Devon Energy moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. In fact, the Devon Energy stock price is 41% lower in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 2.0% per year. So there seems to be a mismatch between the positive EPS growth and the change in the share price, which is down -16% per year.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Devon Energy's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Devon Energy the TSR over the last 5 years was 555%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Devon Energy had a tough year, with a total loss of 23% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 9.2%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 46%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Devon Energy (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:DVN
Devon Energy
An independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States.
Very undervalued with adequate balance sheet.