Stock Analysis

    How Does Concho Resources's (NYSE:CXO) P/E Compare To Its Industry, After The Share Price Drop?

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    Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Concho Resources (NYSE:CXO) share price has dived 32% in the last thirty days. Indeed the recent decline has arguably caused some bitterness for shareholders who have held through the 49% drop over twelve months.

    All else being equal, a share price drop should make a stock more attractive to potential investors. While the market sentiment towards a stock is very changeable, in the long run, the share price will tend to move in the same direction as earnings per share. The implication here is that long term investors have an opportunity when expectations of a company are too low. One way to gauge market expectations of a stock is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E ratio means that investors have a high expectation about future growth, while a low P/E ratio means they have low expectations about future growth.

    Check out our latest analysis for Concho Resources

    How Does Concho Resources's P/E Ratio Compare To Its Peers?

    We can tell from its P/E ratio of 26.8 that there is some investor optimism about Concho Resources. As you can see below, Concho Resources has a much higher P/E than the average company (8.5) in the oil and gas industry.

    NYSE:CXO Price Estimation Relative to Market, August 24th 2019
    NYSE:CXO Price Estimation Relative to Market, August 24th 2019

    Its relatively high P/E ratio indicates that Concho Resources shareholders think it will perform better than other companies in its industry classification.

    How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios

    Probably the most important factor in determining what P/E a company trades on is the earnings growth. If earnings are growing quickly, then the 'E' in the equation will increase faster than it would otherwise. And in that case, the P/E ratio itself will drop rather quickly. A lower P/E should indicate the stock is cheap relative to others -- and that may attract buyers.

    Concho Resources saw earnings per share decrease by 65% last year. But over the longer term (5 years) earnings per share have increased by 3.0%.

    Don't Forget: The P/E Does Not Account For Debt or Bank Deposits

    It's important to note that the P/E ratio considers the market capitalization, not the enterprise value. Thus, the metric does not reflect cash or debt held by the company. The exact same company would hypothetically deserve a higher P/E ratio if it had a strong balance sheet, than if it had a weak one with lots of debt, because a cashed up company can spend on growth.

    Such expenditure might be good or bad, in the long term, but the point here is that the balance sheet is not reflected by this ratio.

    Is Debt Impacting Concho Resources's P/E?

    Concho Resources has net debt equal to 32% of its market cap. While it's worth keeping this in mind, it isn't a worry.

    The Bottom Line On Concho Resources's P/E Ratio

    Concho Resources's P/E is 26.8 which is above average (17) in its market. With some debt but no EPS growth last year, the market has high expectations of future profits. Given Concho Resources's P/E ratio has declined from 39.2 to 26.8 in the last month, we know for sure that the market is significantly less confident about the business today, than it was back then. For those who don't like to trade against momentum, that could be a warning sign, but a contrarian investor might want to take a closer look.

    Investors should be looking to buy stocks that the market is wrong about. If the reality for a company is better than it expects, you can make money by buying and holding for the long term. So this free visualization of the analyst consensus on future earnings could help you make the right decision about whether to buy, sell, or hold.

    You might be able to find a better buy than Concho Resources. If you want a selection of possible winners, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20 (but have proven they can grow earnings).

    We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

    If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.