Chevron Corporation Just Beat EPS By 6.6%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.3% to hit US$51b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$2.48, some 6.6% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Chevron

Following last week's earnings report, Chevron's 17 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$195.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 23% to US$11.23. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$195.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.75 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$170, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Chevron at US$194 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$145. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Chevron is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Chevron's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Chevron.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Chevron. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Chevron's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chevron. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Chevron analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Chevron you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.