Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) - Share price, News & Analysis

BTU fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

BTU Stock Overview

Peabody Energy Corporation engages in coal mining business in the United States, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, South Korea, and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 4.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 39% per year for the next 3 years

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Peabody Energy Competitors

Arch Resources

NYSE:ARCH

US$2.6b

Alliance Resource Partners

NasdaqGS:ARLP

US$2.5b

CONSOL Energy

NYSE:CEIX

US$1.8b

Natural Resource Partners

NYSE:NRP

US$619.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Peabody Energy
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$24.46
52 Week High	US$33.29
52 Week Low	US$5.37
Beta	1.19
1 Month Change	-0.20%
3 Month Change	30.11%
1 Year Change	355.49%
3 Year Change	-1.69%
5 Year Change	-1.53%
Change since IPO	-21.10%

Recent News & Updates

May 17

Peabody Energy: After A Bad Q1, Paying 3x FCF Is Probably Cheap Enough

Peabody Energy should be benefitting from soaring coal prices. However, surprisingly it's not. For Q1 2022, Peabody should be reporting strong free cash flows, yet it's reported losses. Peabody Energy should be paying out a special dividend right now. Instead, it just diluted shareholders to cover a margin call. All that being said, I believe that paying approximately 2x to 3x free cash flows is cheap enough for a diversified portfolio of energy stocks. As always, happy to discuss my thesis further.

Apr 21

Peabody Energy: The Right Stock At The Right Time

Thermal Coal looks to be in the early stages of a long-term bull market, and Metallurgical prices, well volatile, remain high. Peabody has the cost structure and resources to take unique advantage of this bull market. The Stock is cheap using a number of metrics.

Apr 11

Peabody Is Unexpected Winner Of Geopolitical Crisis

Not long ago, Peabody was seen as a miner producing something that the world is set to abandon sooner rather than later. In other words, a company with no future. The EU natural gas crisis was the signal that suggested that things are looking up for the global coal market. I bought Peabody stock in early January in response. Between the EU's quest to become 100% free of Russian energy and other global factors, any dips in Peabody stock should be seen as a further buying opportunity. Global natural gas market trends suggest that the coal market is far from seeing a significant slide in demand going forward, meaning that Peabody's outlook is increasingly looking positive for the longer term, not just in short term.

Mar 21

Peabody Energy: Very Positive Outlook, And Still Cheap

Peabody Energy will see its near-term prospects meaningfully improve. Peabody is set up very well with a strong balance sheet and no near-term maturities. Peabody is priced at approximately 3x this year's free cash flows. What's more, the macro environment right now is sizzling hot.

Mar 08

As Europe Begs For Coal, Peabody Energy Can Deliver

Coal prices have risen by over 100% this year as Russian and Indonesian exports decline. Europe's effort to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas necessitates a significant increase in coal consumption. U.S coal mining companies with export capacity such as Peabody Energy are set to make immense profits in the current environment. I estimate Peabody may see an EPS of $10 up to potentially $35 this year, depending on how the highly volatile situation unfolds. Given shifting market dynamics against natural gas, investors should not discount the long-run potential of U.S coal miners like Peabody.

Shareholder Returns

	BTU	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	6.9%	0.2%	-4.0%
1Y	355.5%	58.6%	-13.2%

Return vs Industry: BTU exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 54.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BTU exceeded the US Market which returned -12.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BTU's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BTU volatility
BTU Average Weekly Movement	15.4%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.4%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: BTU is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 15% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BTU's weekly volatility (15%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1883	4,900	Jim Grech	https://www.peabodyenergy.com

Peabody Energy Corporation engages in coal mining business in the United States, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, South Korea, and internationally. The company operates through Seaborne Thermal Mining, Seaborne Metallurgical Mining, Powder River Basin Mining, and Other U.S. Thermal Mining segments.

Peabody Energy Fundamentals Summary

How do Peabody Energy's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BTU fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$3.52b
Earnings (TTM)	US$295.50m
Revenue (TTM)	US$3.36b

11.9x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/S Ratio

Is BTU overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BTU income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$3.36b
Cost of Revenue	US$2.67b
Gross Profit	US$688.90m
Other Expenses	US$393.40m
Earnings	US$295.50m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.05
Gross Margin	20.51%
Net Profit Margin	8.80%
Debt/Equity Ratio	56.4%

How did BTU perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Peabody Energy undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

4.1%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: BTU ($24.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($25.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BTU is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: BTU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (13.6x).

PE vs Market: BTU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the US market (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BTU's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: BTU is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.9x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (2.1x).

Future Growth

How is Peabody Energy forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-39.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BTU's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-39% per year).

Earnings vs Market: BTU's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-39% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BTU's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BTU's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-10.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BTU's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-10.9% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BTU's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.3%).

Past Performance

How has Peabody Energy performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-26.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BTU has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BTU became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BTU has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -26.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: BTU has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BTU has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (88.4%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BTU's Return on Equity (16.1%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Peabody Energy's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BTU's short term assets ($1.8B) exceed its short term liabilities ($817.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: BTU's short term assets ($1.8B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($2.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BTU's net debt to equity ratio (13%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: BTU's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 269.3% to 56.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BTU's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (7%).

Interest Coverage: BTU's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Peabody Energy current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BTU's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BTU's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BTU's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BTU's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: BTU is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BTU has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jim Grech (59 yo)

0.92

Tenure

US$4,239,272

Compensation

Mr. James C. Grech also known as Jim, serves as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director at Peabody Energy Corporation since June 1, 2021. He served as Chief Executive Officer of Wolverine Fuels, LL...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jim's total compensation ($USD4.24M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.83M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Jim's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BTU's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BTU's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 44.2%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31