U.S. Energy Valuation

Is USEG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of USEG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: USEG ($1.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($4.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: USEG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for USEG?

Key metric: As USEG is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for USEG. This is calculated by dividing USEG's market cap by their current revenue.
What is USEG's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	2x
Sales	US$22.26m
Market Cap	US$43.91m

USEG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does USEG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for USEG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.1x
NRT North European Oil Royalty Trust	6.9x	n/a	US$36.1m
PED PEDEVCO	2x	21.4%	US$67.4m
PVL Permianville Royalty Trust	15.5x	n/a	US$50.2m
CRT Cross Timbers Royalty Trust	7.9x	n/a	US$60.9m
USEG U.S. Energy	2x	20.8%	US$43.9m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: USEG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the peer average (8.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does USEG's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

38 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
PSX Phillips 66	0.3x	-5.3%	US$51.21b
MPC Marathon Petroleum	0.3x	-3.5%	US$47.01b
VLO Valero Energy	0.3x	-3.1%	US$41.05b
PAA Plains All American Pipeline	0.2x	2.0%	US$12.70b

38 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: USEG is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is USEG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

USEG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	2x
Fair PS Ratio	0.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: USEG is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst USEG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$1.61	US$2.50 +55.3%	16.3%	US$3.00	US$2.00	n/a	3
Dec ’25	US$1.85	US$2.50 +35.1%	16.3%	US$3.00	US$2.00	n/a	3
Nov ’25	US$1.32	US$1.75 +32.6%	14.3%	US$2.00	US$1.50	n/a	2
Oct ’25	US$1.30	US$1.75 +34.6%	14.3%	US$2.00	US$1.50	n/a	2
Sep ’25	US$0.94	US$1.75 +85.6%	14.3%	US$2.00	US$1.50	n/a	2
Aug ’25	US$1.06	US$1.75 +65.1%	14.3%	US$2.00	US$1.50	n/a	2
Jul ’25	US$1.02	US$1.75 +71.6%	14.3%	US$2.00	US$1.50	n/a	2
Jun ’25	US$1.11	US$1.75 +57.7%	14.3%	US$2.00	US$1.50	n/a	2
May ’25	US$1.16	US$1.75 +50.9%	14.3%	US$2.00	US$1.50	n/a	2
Apr ’25	US$1.15	US$1.75 +52.2%	14.3%	US$2.00	US$1.50	n/a	2
Mar ’25	US$1.03	US$2.00 +94.2%	25.0%	US$2.50	US$1.50	n/a	2
Feb ’25	US$1.05	US$2.00 +90.5%	25.0%	US$2.50	US$1.50	n/a	2
Jan ’25	US$1.00	US$2.00 +100.0%	25.0%	US$2.50	US$1.50	n/a	2
Dec ’24	US$1.15	US$2.63 +129.3%	4.8%	US$2.75	US$2.50	US$1.85	2
Aug ’24	US$1.57	US$3.10 +97.5%	3.2%	US$3.20	US$3.00	US$1.06	2
Jul ’24	US$1.42	US$3.10 +118.3%	3.2%	US$3.20	US$3.00	US$1.02	2
Jun ’24	US$1.46	US$3.10 +112.3%	3.2%	US$3.20	US$3.00	US$1.11	2
May ’24	US$1.42	US$3.25 +128.9%	7.7%	US$3.50	US$3.00	US$1.16	2
Feb ’24	US$2.44	US$3.75 +53.7%	6.7%	US$4.00	US$3.50	US$1.05	2
Jan ’24	US$2.30	US$3.88 +68.5%	3.2%	US$4.00	US$3.75	US$1.00	2
Dec ’23	US$2.62	US$3.88 +47.9%	3.2%	US$4.00	US$3.75	US$1.15	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.