Stock Analysis

A Look At TransGlobe Energy's (NASDAQ:TGA) Share Price Returns

NasdaqCM:TGA
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TransGlobe Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:TGA) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 94% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. You would have done a lot better buying an index fund, since the stock has dropped 50% in that half decade.

Check out our latest analysis for TransGlobe Energy

TransGlobe Energy isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over five years, TransGlobe Energy grew its revenue at 13% per year. That's a pretty good rate for a long time period. We doubt many shareholders are ok with the fact the share price has fallen 8% each year for half a decade. Clearly, the expectations from back then have not been satisfied. The lesson is that if you buy shares in a money losing company you could end up losing money.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:TGA Earnings and Revenue Growth December 7th 2020

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between TransGlobe Energy's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for TransGlobe Energy shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 47%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 26% in the last year, TransGlobe Energy shareholders lost 29%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with TransGlobe Energy .

We will like TransGlobe Energy better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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