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PDC Energy Valuation

Is PDCE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PDCE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PDCE ($73.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($233.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PDCE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PDCE?

Key metric: As PDCE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PDCE. This is calculated by dividing PDCE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PDCE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio3.5x
EarningsUS$1.85b
Market CapUS$6.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PDCE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PDCE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
CHRD Chord Energy
8.5x4.3%US$8.2b
MTDR Matador Resources
8x8.3%US$7.6b
PR Permian Resources
10.8x10.1%US$11.4b
RRC Range Resources
18.1x20.1%US$8.6b
PDCE PDC Energy
3.5x-12.5%US$6.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PDCE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the peer average (6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PDCE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
EVVA.Q Enviva
n/an/aUS$74.00
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
PDCE 3.5xIndustry Avg. 11.6xNo. of Companies18PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PDCE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (6.9x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PDCE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PDCE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3.5x
Fair PE Ratio6.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PDCE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PDCE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Nov ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Oct ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Sep ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Aug ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Jul ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Jun ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
May ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Apr ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Mar ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Feb ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Jan ’25n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Dec ’24n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Nov ’24n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Oct ’24n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Sep ’24n/a
US$83.83
0%
14.0%US$100.00US$72.00n/a6
Aug ’24US$75.28
US$81.00
+7.6%
13.1%US$100.00US$71.00n/a9
Jul ’24US$71.14
US$86.50
+21.6%
12.6%US$100.00US$72.00n/a10
Jun ’24US$69.33
US$85.33
+23.1%
12.8%US$100.00US$72.00n/a9
May ’24US$64.73
US$89.85
+38.8%
14.1%US$115.00US$70.00n/a13
Apr ’24US$64.18
US$87.46
+36.3%
16.0%US$115.00US$65.00n/a13
Mar ’24US$67.96
US$86.23
+26.9%
14.9%US$115.00US$70.00n/a13
Feb ’24US$65.71
US$89.79
+36.6%
15.5%US$115.00US$70.00n/a14
Jan ’24US$63.48
US$94.50
+48.9%
18.3%US$130.00US$68.00n/a12
Dec ’23US$71.46
US$97.50
+36.4%
15.5%US$130.00US$77.00n/a12
Nov ’23US$72.49
US$94.00
+29.7%
16.9%US$130.00US$75.00n/a12

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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