HighPeak Energy, Inc. Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for HighPeak Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:HPK) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 12% to US$5.83. Revenues fell 9.6% short of expectations, at US$189m. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with HighPeak Energy reporting a statutory loss of US$0.15 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering HighPeak Energy, is for revenues of US$818.1m in 2026. This implies a discernible 7.2% reduction in HighPeak Energy's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 40% to US$0.23 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$824.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for HighPeak Energy

The average price target fell 48% to US$9.50, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HighPeak Energy at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.8% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 38% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that HighPeak Energy's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of HighPeak Energy's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for HighPeak Energy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with HighPeak Energy (including 2 which can't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.