Stock Analysis

PennyMac Financial Services' (NYSE:PFSI) investors will be pleased with their fantastic 435% return over the last five years

NYSE:PFSI
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We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. Don't believe it? Then look at the PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE:PFSI) share price. It's 403% higher than it was five years ago. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. It's down 2.6% in the last seven days.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, PennyMac Financial Services achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 3.8% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 38% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:PFSI Earnings Per Share Growth March 31st 2025

We know that PennyMac Financial Services has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think PennyMac Financial Services will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of PennyMac Financial Services, it has a TSR of 435% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that PennyMac Financial Services shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 13% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 40% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand PennyMac Financial Services better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with PennyMac Financial Services (at least 2 which don't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.