NCR Atleos (NATL): Evaluating Valuation After Third Quarter Growth and Full-Year Guidance Reaffirmation

NCR Atleos (NATL) just posted its third quarter results, showing both revenue and net income increased compared to last year. The company also reaffirmed its full-year outlook, which helped reassure investors about continued progress.

See our latest analysis for NCR Atleos.

NCR Atleos’s solid quarterly results and upbeat full-year guidance seem to have sparked renewed optimism, with the stock up 7.3% year-to-date and delivering a standout 24.4% total shareholder return over the past year. Momentum has picked up in recent weeks as investors respond to both its financial progress and ongoing digital innovation efforts.

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With shares still trading at a 23% discount to the average analyst price target, but strong performance already reflected in the recent rally, investors now face a critical question: is there a true buying opportunity here, or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.1% Undervalued

With the fair value set at $44.67 and the last close at $36.57, the most closely watched narrative sees the stock trading below what analysts believe it’s worth, citing upbeat projections alongside a sizable discount in the share price.

High recurring revenue mix (over 70% in Q2), significant productivity gains through AI-driven service optimization, and a rapidly scaling backlog are driving strong margin expansion and robust free cash flow. These factors are underpinning announced share buybacks and sustained EPS growth, suggesting current valuation does not reflect enhanced long-term earnings power.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to peek behind the valuation hype? There is a bold vision of margin growth, recurring revenue, and cash flow milestones built into that price target. The specific assumptions will surprise you. Find out what industry breakthroughs and future financial leaps analysts believe justify this premium.

Result: Fair Value of $44.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, accelerating digital banking trends and ongoing fintech competition could weaken NCR Atleos's core ATM business. This could potentially challenge its optimistic recurring revenue outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this NCR Atleos narrative.

Another View: Market Ratio Perspective

Looking at the price-to-earnings ratio, NCR Atleos trades at 20.5x earnings, which is above both the US Diversified Financial industry average of 13.5x and the peer average of just 8.2x. While the current fair ratio is 20.8x, hovering near this benchmark means valuation risk may be higher if expectations reset. Is the premium justified, or is there a gap for disappointment?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NCR Atleos for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 881 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own NCR Atleos Narrative

If you’d like a fresh take, or want to dig into the numbers your own way, it only takes a few minutes to build your own view. Do it your way

A great starting point for your NCR Atleos research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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