Does Moody’s (MCO) Robust Buybacks and Dividend Reflect Enduring Strength or Strategic Caution?

• Moody's Corporation recently reported its second quarter and first half 2025 results, showing year-on-year increases in both sales and net income, affirmed its regular dividend, and continued its share buyback program.
• This combination of operational strength and active shareholder return policies highlights Moody's ongoing focus on performance and capital management.
• We'll examine how Moody's robust earnings growth and accelerated share repurchases influence the company's evolving investment narrative.

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Moody's Investment Narrative Recap

Owning shares of Moody's is about confidence in its role as a global risk assessment leader and the expanding need for credit ratings and analytics as private credit markets evolve. The latest results, showing steady earnings growth and continued buybacks, reinforce this strength, but don’t meaningfully change key short-term catalysts such as private credit expansion or core risks like exposure to stricter regulation, especially as scrutiny on private credit continues to intensify.

Among recent developments, the company’s ongoing share repurchase program stands out, over 600,000 shares were bought back this quarter alone, reinforcing a focus on returning capital to shareholders. This consistent capital return aligns squarely with investor interest, even as debates persist about the sustainability of Moody’s competitive edge in increasingly regulated and tech-driven markets.

Yet, despite these positive signals, investors need to remain aware that increased regulatory and political scrutiny of private credit...

Read the full narrative on Moody's (it's free!)

Moody's outlook forecasts $9.0 billion in revenue and $3.0 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a 7.2% annual revenue growth rate and a $0.9 billion increase in earnings from the current $2.1 billion.

Uncover how Moody's forecasts yield a $539.38 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members provided 12 fair value estimates for Moody’s, ranging from US$251.06 to US$539.38 per share. While opinions differ, the company’s exposure to shifting regulatory scrutiny in private credit could weigh on long-term performance, highlighting the importance of comparing diverse views before making decisions.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Moody's - why the stock might be worth as much as $539.38!

Build Your Own Moody's Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Moody's research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Moody's research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moody's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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