Moelis & Company

NYSE:MC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.2b

Moelis Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Moelis is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 13.7% and 14.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 58.8% in 3 years.

Key information

13.7%

Earnings growth rate

7.32%

EPS growth rate

Capital Markets earnings growth11.8%
Revenue growth rate14.1%
Future return on equity58.78%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated05 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 29

MC: Rich Buyback Will Face Pressure From Weaker Profitability Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Moelis by $1 to $58. This reflects updated assumptions that pair slightly higher forecast revenue growth and P/E expectations with a more conservative profit margin outlook and a marginally higher discount rate.
Narrative Update • Apr 15

MC: Future Buybacks Will Support Returns Despite Reduced Multiple Assumptions

Analysts have trimmed their Moelis price target from $90 to $86, reflecting updated assumptions that combine slightly lower projected revenue growth with a higher profit margin outlook and a reduced future P/E multiple. What's in the News Moelis reported that from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025 it repurchased 716,257 shares, or 0.97% of shares, for US$45.09 million under an existing buyback program.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 14

Moelis: Cost Of Capital Risks Mean Dealmaking Snag Could Endure

Summary Moelis & Company (MC) faces a worse Q1 containing the Iran War, SaaS-pocalypse effects and a translation upwards of the yield curve. Deal momentum in general has been affected by the Iran War; Q4 revenue growth had already decelerated to 11% despite marquee transactions and added managing directors. The factors that might have led to a sponsor return and sustained megadeals, i.e rate cuts and lower cost of capital with inflation calming, are in reverse. Logically we should expect an environment now more akin to the Ukraine war outbreak environment of 2023 and 2022. Expectations are a dangerous thing with inflation. Mid-market players have also been struck YTD almost as much in stalled price performance. While all should have declined, mid-market should have declined less than MC. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 01

MC: New Buyback Authorization And Fair View Will Shape Long Term Outlook

Analysts now set a slightly lower price target for Moelis at $59.00, compared with $60.81 previously, reflecting small refinements to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Completed a share repurchase tranche from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, buying 716,257 shares, or 0.97% of shares, for $45.09 million under the existing program (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 17

MC: New Buyback Authorization Will Support A Constructive Long Term Outlook

Analysts now see Moelis' fair value at about $60.81, down from $72.00. This reflects updated assumptions around higher revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, and a reduced future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

MC: New Buyback Plan Will Support A Constructive Long Term Outlook

Analysts reaffirmed their $72.00 price target on Moelis, citing slight model adjustments around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E expectations that, in their view, still support the existing valuation framework. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, the company repurchased 700,000 shares, representing 0.95% of shares, for a total of $44.07 million under its existing buyback plan (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 16

MC: Share Repurchases And Updated Assumptions Will Shape A Still Cautious Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on Moelis to $72.00 from $67.07, citing updated assumptions related to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Moelis repurchased 700,000 shares, representing 0.95%, for US$44.07 million under its existing buyback program (Key Developments).
Analysis Article • Feb 08

Moelis (NYSE:MC) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.65

Moelis & Company ( NYSE:MC ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.65 per share on the 26th of March. Based...
Narrative Update • Feb 02

MC: Modest Assumption Tweaks Will Support A Still Cautious Fair Value Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target for Moelis higher from US$66.00 to about US$67.07, citing refined assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E as the key drivers of the adjustment. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Updated slightly higher from US$66.00 to about US$67.07 per share.
Narrative Update • Jan 19

MC: Share Repurchases Will Offer Limited Support To A Still Cautious Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Moelis from US$68.00 to US$66.00, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly different revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Moelis repurchased 205,966 shares for US$14.57 million, equal to 0.28% of its shares.
Narrative Update • Jan 05

MC: Share Repurchases And Slightly Stronger Margins Will Support Moderate Future Upside

Analysts have modestly refined their price target on Moelis to reflect slightly faster expected revenue growth, marginally stronger profit margins, and a small reduction in the assumed cost of equity, while keeping fair value essentially unchanged at $68.00 per share. What's in the News Completed a multiyear share repurchase program, buying back a total of 3,352,750 shares, or about 5.57% of outstanding stock, for $152.4 million under the authorization announced on February 6, 2019 (company buyback disclosure).
Narrative Update • Dec 14

MC: Share Repurchases And Higher Profitability Will Support Moderate Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price target on Moelis up by 5 percent to 68 dollars, citing expectations for stronger profitability and a lower future earnings multiple, despite slightly softer projected revenue growth. What's in the News Completed a multi year share repurchase program totaling 3,352,750 shares, or 5.57 percent of outstanding shares, for 152.4 million dollars under the buyback announced on February 6, 2019 (Key Developments) In the latest tranche from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, repurchased 205,966 shares, or 0.28 percent of outstanding shares, for 14.57 million dollars (Key Developments) Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has risen slightly from 65.0 dollars to 68.0 dollars per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
Narrative Update • Nov 28

MC: Share Repurchases And Solid Margins Will Drive Further Upside Ahead

Analysts have adjusted their price target for Moelis slightly downward from $76.75 to $76.50, citing minor updates to profitability metrics and discount rate assumptions. What's in the News Between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, Moelis repurchased 205,966 shares for a total of $14.57 million.
Narrative Update • Nov 14

MC: Buyback Completion And Rising Margins Will Drive Future Upside Potential

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Moelis to $76.75. They cite modest adjustments to growth assumptions and discount rates, despite improvements in profit margin and expected earnings multiples.
Narrative Update • Oct 30

MC: Share Buybacks Will Drive Long-Term Value Amid Rising Profit Margins

Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Moelis downward from $80 to approximately $76.86. They cite expectations for slightly slower revenue growth, a modest increase in profit margins, and a lower projected future price-to-earnings ratio.
Narrative Update • Oct 03

Global Cross-Border M&A And PCA Expansion Will Boost Market Opportunities

Analysts have raised the fair value target for Moelis from $78.60 to $80.00. This reflects modest improvements in revenue growth expectations, along with adjustments for a slightly higher discount rate and a lower projected future price-earnings ratio.
Narrative Update • Sep 09

Global Cross-Border M&A And PCA Expansion Will Boost Market Opportunities

The modest rise in Moelis's consensus price target to $78.60 appears driven by a slight decline in its forward P/E multiple, signaling improved valuation attractiveness despite unchanged revenue growth expectations. What's in the News Completed repurchase of 3,146,784 shares (5.29% of outstanding) for $137.83 million under its buyback program.
Analysis Article • Jul 15

Moelis & Company's (NYSE:MC) Shares Leap 26% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story

Moelis & Company ( NYSE:MC ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 06

Moelis: Too Much Of A Sponsor Recovery Bet Amid Trumpflation

Summary MC is higher multiple than peers due to more latent earnings from a sponsor recovery. Our concern is that Trumpflation may extend timelines further for when PE comes back to market. While MC will benefit from a more lax FTC, there are other picks that will as well and have more to offer in terms of growth factors and multiple. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 14

Moelis: A Lot Still Riding On A Sponsor Recovery

Summary Moelis had a strong quarter, driven by capital markets and restructuring. We are a bit concerned about the sustainability of ECM and DCM activities. The firm is heavily reliant on a sponsor market recovery which still is facing challenges. We think market multiples reflect that a lot is riding on the sponsor recovery for Moelis, something we'd prefer not to bet on right now. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Aug 30

Interest Rate Fluctuations And Restructuring Shifts Pose Challenges, Yet M&A And Decisive Expansions Promise Revenue Growth

Dependency on high interest rates and conventional fee structures under pressure could negatively affect Moelis' restructuring revenues and overall revenue model.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 21

Moelis: Sponsors Still On Sidelines

Summary Moelis saw a strong quarter led by recovery, with M&A weak due to the shortfall from little PE and other financial sponsor activity. The company was more optimistic last call on the M&A recovery. Timing considerations for PE may keep them on the sidelines for quite a bit longer until rates are cut. There is some latent earnings pressure from compensation-based dilution. We prefer Lazard on valuation and intermediate return considerations. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 01

Moelis: Restructuring One-Offs Surge Revenues

Summary Moelis had a strong quarter with substantial revenue growth, largely driven by a major restructuring that is not expected to be recurring. The underlying activity in M&A remains weak, in line with the end of 2022 levels, and the end of year quarters for M&A were not as strong as usual. MC has been aggressive in hiring, but its headcount has only increased by 3-4% and is mainly focused on optimizing its coverage rather than bloating the ranks. Some savings will be coming in incrementally, and any pickup in activity will translate rapidly to the bottom line. But the good news seems priced in. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 24

Moelis & Company: Solid Company, But A Rich Valuation

Summary Moelis & Company has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 since going public in 2014. The investment banking advisory industry is highly competitive, with low barriers to entry and low switching costs for customers. MC has used the recent industry downturn to significantly grow its managing director headcount and is poised to benefit once the industry recovers. The Company is currently trading at a high valuation relative to peers and its own historical norms, but the company now has significantly more earnings power than was the case in the past. I am initiating MC with a hold rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 15

Moelis: The Time Has Come For M&A

Summary Moelis & Company should start seeing a pickup in larger ticket deals and, therefore, in their end markets for some sequential improvements. A return of sponsor activity will be important for upfronting revenue events, but the drought seems to be ending with high-profile IPOs and market activity in again. Leading indicators for restructuring revenue look good, and this is a decent chunk, around 20%, of Moelis' business, and will help out in the coming quarters finally. Overall, historical prices show that Moelis may be slightly extended, but we are pretty optimistic about the advisory world. However, there are still risks on cost of capital uncertainties, especially with the latest CPI figures, that could derail things. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 12

Moelis: Deteriorating Financials And Further Downside Ahead

Summary Moelis & Company is facing financial underperformance due to a decrease in investment banking activity, and its stock is significantly overvalued compared to peers. The company's revenues are increasingly susceptible due to a lack of geographic diversification and heavy exposure to the U.S. market, whilst also facing increasing costs following ambitious hiring. Management insider transactions show heavy selling year-to-date, and the sell-side community consensus is skewed to the downside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 07

Moelis Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Moelis (NYSE:MC) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, February 8th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.33 (-76.8% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $211.34M (-50.3% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, MC has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 88% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 8 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 6 downward.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MC - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20282,199305N/AN/A3
12/31/20272,013311N/AN/A9
12/31/20261,690251N/AN/A9
3/31/20261,530221417463N/A
12/31/20251,517233540576N/A
9/30/20251,468235523553N/A
6/30/20251,384198479491N/A
3/31/20251,284170417427N/A
12/31/20241,195136415427N/A
9/30/202497141196211N/A
6/30/202496913197214N/A
3/31/2024884-12125146N/A
12/31/2023855-25142158N/A
9/30/20238471168182N/A
6/30/202380837157167N/A
3/31/202387188149153N/A
12/31/20229851502733N/A
9/30/20221,203229292300N/A
6/30/20221,460324481490N/A
3/31/20221,579364672687N/A
12/31/20211,541365921937N/A
9/30/20211,538393852873N/A
6/30/20211,254305629658N/A
3/31/20211,053220448479N/A
12/31/2020943179389429N/A
9/30/202074574272304N/A
6/30/202076981239263N/A
3/31/2020762117241259N/A
12/31/2019747105N/A209N/A
9/30/2019761123N/A167N/A
6/30/2019737115N/A270N/A
3/31/2019804121N/A261N/A
12/31/2018886141N/A391N/A
9/30/201881777N/A330N/A
6/30/201877963N/A231N/A
3/31/201873147N/A266N/A
12/31/201768529N/A233N/A
9/30/201772069N/A273N/A
6/30/201770160N/A290N/A
3/31/201766047N/A257N/A
12/31/201661338N/A232N/A
9/30/201658434N/A199N/A
6/30/201658535N/A185N/A
3/31/201657935N/A180N/A
12/31/201555233N/A143N/A
9/30/201552132N/A128N/A
6/30/201549828N/A138N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MC's forecast earnings growth (13.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: MC's earnings (13.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MC's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MC's revenue (14.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MC's revenue (14.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MC's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (58.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 01:57
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Moelis & Company is covered by 18 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Charles HintzBernstein
Brennan HawkenBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Ebrahim PoonawalaBofA Global Research