Moelis (NYSE:MC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MC ($46.66) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($83.58)

MC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	4/6

MC Stock Overview

Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory firm.

Rewards

Trading at 44.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 40.5% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 19.8% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Moelis Competitors

Partners

NYSE:PJT

US$3.0b

Piper Sandler Companies

NYSE:PIPR

US$2.3b

Virtu Financial

NasdaqGS:VIRT

US$4.2b

Evercore

NYSE:EVR

US$4.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Moelis
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$46.66
52 Week High	US$77.49
52 Week Low	US$37.16
Beta	1.3
1 Month Change	16.83%
3 Month Change	10.70%
1 Year Change	-25.72%
3 Year Change	47.89%
5 Year Change	21.35%
Change since IPO	78.43%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 26

Moelis Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Moelis (NYSE:MC) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Wednesday, July 27th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.43 (-63.9% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $199.79M (-44.6% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, MC has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 88% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 9 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 7 downward.

Jul 19

Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their Moelis & Company (NYSE:MC) Revenue and EPS estimates

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Moelis & Company ( NYSE:MC ), with the analysts making...

Shareholder Returns

	MC	US Capital Markets	US Market
7D	3.3%	2.8%	1.3%
1Y	-25.7%	-15.4%	-11.7%

Return vs Industry: MC underperformed the US Capital Markets industry which returned -16% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MC underperformed the US Market which returned -11.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MC volatility
MC Average Weekly Movement	5.1%
Capital Markets Industry Average Movement	0.5%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: MC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MC's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2007	990	Ken Moelis	https://www.moelis.com

Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory firm. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters. The company offers its services to public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds.

Moelis Fundamentals Summary

How do Moelis's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$3.26b
Earnings (TTM)	US$324.02m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.46b

9.2x

P/E Ratio

2.0x

P/S Ratio

Is MC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.46b
Cost of Revenue	US$65.31m
Gross Profit	US$1.40b
Other Expenses	US$1.07b
Earnings	US$324.02m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.06
Gross Margin	95.53%
Net Profit Margin	22.19%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did MC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

10.5%

Current Dividend Yield

48%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MC. This is calculated by dividing MC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$3.26b

MC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for MC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.2x
PJT Partners	17.6x	n/a	US$3.0b
PIPR Piper Sandler Companies	10.5x	n/a	US$2.3b
VIRT Virtu Financial	7.1x	11.6%	US$4.2b
EVR Evercore	5.7x	-11.5%	US$4.6b
MC Moelis	9.2x	-19.8%	US$3.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the peer average (10.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Capital Markets Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the US Capital Markets industry average (30.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.2x
Fair PE Ratio	8.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MC ($46.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($83.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Moelis forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-19.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-19.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: MC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-19.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MC's revenue (4.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MC's revenue (4.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MC's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (55.7%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Moelis performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

40.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MC's current net profit margins (22.2%) are lower than last year (24.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MC's earnings have grown significantly by 40.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MC's earnings growth over the past year (6.1%) is below its 5-year average (40.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MC earnings growth over the past year (6.1%) underperformed the Capital Markets industry 53.6%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: MC's Return on Equity (83.4%) is considered outstanding.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Moelis's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MC's short term assets ($245.1M) exceed its short term liabilities ($177.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: MC's short term assets ($245.1M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($494.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MC is debt free.

Reducing Debt: MC has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MC has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: MC has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is Moelis's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

10.50%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MC's dividend (10.5%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.5%).

High Dividend: MC's dividend (10.5%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.05%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MC has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: MC's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 8 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (47.5%), MC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (71.3%), MC's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Ken Moelis (63 yo)

15.58yrs

Tenure

US$14,358,959

Compensation

Mr. Kenneth David Moelis, is Founded Moelis & Company and serves as its CEO & Chairman from May 2022. He was CEO & Chairman of Moelis & Company from 2007 to May 2022. Mr. Kenneth David Moelis, also known a...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ken's total compensation ($USD14.36M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.58M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ken's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MC's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MC's board of directors are considered experienced (8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: MC insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31