Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) After Its First-Quarter Report

Shareholders might have noticed that Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to US$441 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$6.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$3.22. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Mastercard

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mastercard from 34 analysts is for revenues of US$27.8b in 2024. If met, it would imply a notable 8.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 11% to US$14.20. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$28.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.32 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$513. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Mastercard, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$615 and the most bearish at US$412 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Mastercard'shistorical trends, as the 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that Mastercard is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$513, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mastercard analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Mastercard has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.