Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Janus Henderson Group plc (NYSE:JHG) After Its Latest Results

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Janus Henderson Group plc (NYSE:JHG), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$633m coming in 2.4% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$2.56, in line with analyst appraisals. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the five analysts covering Janus Henderson Group provided consensus estimates of US$2.41b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 6.8% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 20% to US$3.15. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.57 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Janus Henderson Group

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 6.0% to US$45.00, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Janus Henderson Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$54.00 and the most bearish at US$38.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Janus Henderson Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.8% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 13% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Janus Henderson Group to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Janus Henderson Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.