Shift4 Payments (FOUR): Evaluating Valuation as NFL Partnership Expands Sports and Entertainment Growth

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) just made headlines with a fresh partnership, landing the role of powering the Detroit Lions’ ticketing, food and beverage, and retail sales at Ford Field. For investors eyeing the payments sector, moves like this can’t help but draw attention, especially when an NFL franchise bets on a single provider. The event signals yet another vote of confidence in Shift4’s end-to-end commerce platform as it continues to deepen its reach in sports and entertainment venues across the country.

This isn’t the first time Shift4 has expanded its footprint through high-profile deals, but the momentum around integrated payments solutions in live venues is hard to miss. Over the past year, the stock is up 13% overall, even as it has pulled back nearly 17% since January. The past month saw a 15% dip, giving some investors pause after an otherwise impressive multi-year run. Shift4 shares have grown over 994% in three years. The question now is whether this latest splash signals a turning point or more of the same in a business with already fast-rising revenue and net income.

So after this year’s swings and the Lions announcement, are shares finally priced right for new buyers, or is the market still getting ahead of the company’s future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.4% Undervalued

According to community narrative, the consensus among analysts is that Shift4 Payments is currently undervalued, with a fair value estimate set notably above the recent share price. The underlying justification for this optimism is a blend of projected earnings growth, aggressive international expansion, and rising recurring revenue streams.

Significant international expansion through recent acquisitions (Global Blue, Smartpay, Vectron) is unlocking access to large new addressable markets. Rapid merchant onboarding in Europe and new vertical entry into luxury retail are expected to accelerate future revenue growth and increase long-term earnings power.

Curious what is fueling claims of hidden value here? Analysts are betting on ambitious growth levers that could influence sector expectations. The combination of business momentum, margin upgrades, and market expansion is drawing attention to this fair value assessment. There are additional factors to consider, particularly within those forward-looking projections.

Result: Fair Value of $110.62 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the narrative could shift if integration of recent acquisitions stalls, or if rising debt constrains Shift4’s financial flexibility and future growth ambitions.

Find out about the key risks to this Shift4 Payments narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Tells a Different Story

While analysts see Shift4 Payments as undervalued based on expected growth and industry comparisons, our DCF model suggests the current share price sits above fair value. This more cautious approach may be signaling a limit to future upside.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Shift4 Payments for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Shift4 Payments Narrative

If you see things differently or want to explore Shift4’s data firsthand, you can create your own take and dive deeper in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Shift4 Payments research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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