Assessing Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Valuation After a Steep Year-to-Date Share Price Decline

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) has quietly slipped about 7% over the past week and roughly 26% in the past 3 months, prompting investors to recheck whether the recent pullback matches the company’s fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Shift4 Payments.

Zooming out, that recent slide sits on top of a much steeper year to date share price return of about negative 41 percent. However, the three year total shareholder return is still positive, suggesting long term holders are ahead even as shorter term momentum fades and risk perceptions reset.

If you are rethinking your exposure to payments and fintech, it could be a good moment to explore other high growth tech names through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With earnings still growing solidly and Wall Street targets implying nearly 50 percent upside, is Shift4 now trading at an unjustified discount, or simply reflecting a more cautious view of its future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 33% Undervalued

With Shift4 Payments last closing at $64.40 versus a narrative fair value near $95.86, the spread implies the market is heavily discounting its long term plan.

The accelerating global shift to cashless and digital payments continues to expand transaction volumes in key Shift4 verticals (hospitality, sports and entertainment, luxury retail) and underpins long term double digit revenue growth projections.

Ongoing consolidation in the payments industry increases Shift4's acquisition driven growth potential and competitive positioning, underpinning further operating leverage and possible net margin expansion through scale and integration synergies.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this story justifies a much higher price tag, even with richer margins and faster growth baked in, and still leans on a premium future earnings multiple, all discounted by a punchy required return, to bridge today’s gap with that fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $95.86 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, investors still face integration risk from recent acquisitions and rising leverage, both of which could pressure margins and derail Shift4’s long term growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Shift4 Payments narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

While the narrative fair value paints Shift4 as meaningfully undervalued, our earnings based lens looks more cautious. At around 26.4 times earnings versus 13.6 times for the US Diversified Financial industry and a 25.7 times fair ratio, the stock screens as slightly expensive. This raises the question of how much execution risk investors are really being paid for.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Shift4 Payments Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a full narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Shift4 Payments research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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