Corpay (CPAY) Valuation Revisited After Robust Q3 Results and Upbeat 2025 Guidance

Corpay (CPAY) delivered a strong third quarter, posting double-digit year-over-year revenue growth and outpacing consensus expectations. The company’s management raised guidance for 2025 and highlighted encouraging prospects for next year.

See our latest analysis for Corpay.

This quarter’s upbeat results arrive not long after Corpay’s strategic Alpha acquisition, a fresh partnership with the NHL, and a $1 billion expansion of its credit facilities. Despite momentum in the business, the stock has experienced a 1-year total shareholder return of -24.5%, reflecting some skepticism and a realignment in risk perceptions after several years of outperformance. However, the three-year total return stands at a strong 38.4%. This shows that investors who have stayed the course are still comfortably in the black.

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With shares trading roughly 27% below the average analyst price target and a near 50% discount to intrinsic value, investors must now ask whether Corpay remains undervalued or if the market has already captured its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 25% Undervalued

Corpay’s most widely followed valuation narrative points to a substantial disconnect, with fair value estimated at $368.50 compared to the last close of $276.53. This creates a compelling case and highlights core business drivers that could explain the gap seen in today’s share price.

Corpay's rapid expansion of its international cross-border platform, including product launches like the multicurrency account (MCA), extension of services to new customer verticals (FIs, asset managers, digital asset providers), and accretive acquisitions (e.g., Alpha, GPS) positions the company to capitalize on growing global commerce and cross-border payment flows, supporting sustained revenue growth and increasing the company's long-term earnings power.

Read the complete narrative.

What if powerful global payment trends and an aggressive expansion plan are the secret fuel for Corpay’s valuation leap? The fair value hinges on a bold set of projections and headline financial milestones that might surprise most investors. Curious which levers in revenue growth, profitability, and earnings are driving these estimates? See the exact narrative logic that could redefine Corpay’s worth.

Result: Fair Value of $368.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rapid innovation in payment ecosystems and intensifying competition could threaten Corpay’s long-term growth and may put pressure on future margins if trends shift unexpectedly.

Find out about the key risks to this Corpay narrative.

Build Your Own Corpay Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive into the numbers for yourself, you can craft your own Corpay narrative in just a few minutes, and Do it your way

A great starting point for your Corpay research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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