Should Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s (BXMT) Q3 Turnaround and Board Changes Prompt a Closer Look?

• Blackstone Mortgage Trust reported a significant turnaround in its third quarter of 2025, recording US$63.4 million in net income and US$33.73 million in sales, compared to a net loss and much lower sales a year earlier, while also completing share buybacks and making key leadership changes.
• The appointment of industry veteran Jean Hsu to the Board and improved credit outcomes highlight management’s ongoing focus on strengthening expertise and portfolio quality.
• We will explore how sustained earnings growth and portfolio resilience, highlighted in the recent results, fit into Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s long-term investment narrative.

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Blackstone Mortgage Trust Investment Narrative Recap

To own Blackstone Mortgage Trust, investors need confidence in its ability to redeploy capital quickly as loans are repaid, maintaining portfolio size and earnings growth. The strong third-quarter profit turnaround improves short-term outlook and credit quality, but it doesn't fully resolve the key risk of delays between loan repayments and reinvestment, which can still affect distributable earnings.

Among the recent developments, the completion of a US$138.21 million share buyback stands out. While this reduces share count and could support per-share metrics, it does not directly address the fundamental issue of fluctuating portfolio size linked to the timing of loan repayments and redeployments.

By contrast, investors should be aware that the biggest near-term risk involves potential timing mismatches in capital redeployment, which may...

Read the full narrative on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (it's free!)

Blackstone Mortgage Trust's narrative projects $547.4 million in revenue and $513.3 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 32.2% yearly revenue growth and a $525.9 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$12.6 million.

Uncover how Blackstone Mortgage Trust's forecasts yield a $20.50 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate BXMT’s fair value from as low as US$2.05 to US$20.50 per share. Timely reinvestment of capital remains a recurring theme in shaping future earnings, so you may want to compare these opinions as you form your own view.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Blackstone Mortgage Trust - why the stock might be worth as much as 11% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Blackstone Mortgage Trust Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Blackstone Mortgage Trust research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Blackstone Mortgage Trust research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Blackstone Mortgage Trust's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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