Burford Capital (NYSE:BUR): Evaluating Valuation in Light of New YPF Litigation Timeline Update

Burford Capital (NYSE:BUR) recently disclosed a fresh update on its high-profile YPF litigation, with oral arguments for the main appeal now scheduled for late October 2025. This legal milestone could prove important for Burford’s ongoing operations and future outlook.

See our latest analysis for Burford Capital.

Burford Capital’s share price has taken investors on a rocky ride this year, falling nearly 20% since January as ongoing headline events, like the YPF legal saga and its upcoming quarterly results, have kept market sentiment cautious. Despite short-term volatility, the three- and five-year total shareholder returns of 37% and 28% respectively point to underlying resilience and longer-term value creation.

If the twists and turns in Burford’s story have you curious, now is the perfect moment to broaden your perspective and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

Given the recent price slides and a valuation that still trades at a discount to analyst targets, the critical question is whether Burford Capital remains undervalued or if the market is already reflecting future growth in the share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 42.8% Undervalued

With Burford Capital’s last close at $10.69 and the fair value in the narrative placed at $18.70, there is a striking spread between market pessimism and where consensus forecasts believe shares should be valued. That gap is not just the result of sentiment swings; it is rooted in expectations for sustained earnings power and portfolio growth.

Platform diversification across geographies, legal verticals, and risk/duration characteristics is translating into a more robust, less volatile portfolio with greater ability to consistently realize gains and improve risk-adjusted earnings. Ongoing operational scaling, particularly through investment in local presence and expansion into new markets (e.g., Korea, Spain), is expected to further enhance global deal origination, reduce dependency on single large cases, and support long-term revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what is really fueling that big valuation jump? There is a bold formula here: future revenue gains, richer margins, and profit projections that rival high-growth success stories. Get the full scoop on how these underlying forecasts might tip the balance in Burford’s favour and reveal where analysts see things heading next.

Result: Fair Value of $18.70 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing concentration in the YPF case and fresh regulatory scrutiny could quickly change the outlook for Burford Capital’s growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Burford Capital narrative.

Build Your Own Burford Capital Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or have a different take, you can explore the numbers for yourself and assemble a personal view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Burford Capital research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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