T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TROW) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.8% to US$111 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$7.1b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 7.1% to hit US$9.15 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for T. Rowe Price Group

Following the latest results, T. Rowe Price Group's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$7.40b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 4.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$9.19, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.34 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$111, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values T. Rowe Price Group at US$126 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$90.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that T. Rowe Price Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, T. Rowe Price Group is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for T. Rowe Price Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of T. Rowe Price Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.