T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

NasdaqGS:TROW Stock Report

Market Cap: US$22.2b

T. Rowe Price Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

T. Rowe Price Group's earnings are forecast to decline at 0.4% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 1.8% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 0.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.6% in 3 years.

Key information

-0.4%

Earnings growth rate

0.63%

EPS growth rate

Capital Markets earnings growth11.5%
Revenue growth rate1.8%
Future return on equity14.63%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated12 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 25

T. Rowe Price: The 5% Yield Is Attractive But Challenges Exist (Rating Downgrade)

Summary T. Rowe Price is a Dividend Aristocrat with a 39-year streak, strong balance sheet, and a ~5% yield, but faces persistent net outflows and fee compression. I view TROW as a long-term 'hold' due to structural AUM headwinds, recent equity fund underperformance, and ongoing fee pressure despite attractive valuation. TROW's expansion into alternative assets and active ETFs offers growth potential, yet these segments remain a small portion of total AUM. Dividend safety remains robust with a conservative payout ratio and solid free cash flow, but dividend growth is likely to slow to 2-5% annually. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 02

TROW: Expense Discipline And New Products Will Shape Future Risk Reward Balance

Analysts now place fair value for T. Rowe Price Group at about $96.50, down from around $100.58.
Narrative Update • Apr 17

TROW: New Credit Platforms And Buybacks Will Support Earnings Power Ahead

The analyst fair value estimate for T. Rowe Price Group has been revised from $128.00 to $107.00, as analysts factor in softer revenue growth assumptions, slightly lower profit margin expectations, modestly adjusted P/E assumptions, and a lower discount rate following a series of reduced price targets across the Street.
Narrative Update • Apr 01

TROW: Expense Discipline And New Products Will Support Future Re Rating Potential

The Analyst Price Target for T. Rowe Price Group edges slightly lower by about $1.50 as analysts fine tune their models, citing sector wide target cuts following early reads on traditional asset manager flows and modest tweaks to assumptions around fair value, discount rates and future P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Mar 18

TROW: Softer Flows And ETF Expansion Will Shape Future Earnings Multiple

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on T. Rowe Price Group by $0.71 to $83.00, reflecting a reset in expectations as they factor in softer traditional asset manager flows, along with only modest changes to growth, profitability, and future P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Mar 04

TROW: Expense Discipline And ETFs Balance Softer Outlook And Capital Returns

The analyst price target for T. Rowe Price Group has been reduced by about $5 to reflect updated expectations for slower revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple, in line with a series of recent target cuts from major firms.
Narrative Update • Feb 18

TROW: Slower Revenue And Margin Compression Will Pressure Future Earnings Multiple

The analyst price target for T. Rowe Price Group has been reduced by roughly $4 to reflect updated assumptions for slower revenue growth, a lower profit margin profile, a slightly adjusted discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple in line with recent Street research cuts from several firms.
Analysis Article • Feb 13

T. Rowe Price Group (NASDAQ:TROW) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $1.30

The board of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TROW ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $1.30 on...
Narrative Update • Feb 03

TROW: Expense Discipline And ETF Expansion Will Shape Forward Performance

The analyst price target for T. Rowe Price Group has been reduced by about $0.42, as analysts factor in slightly lower revenue growth expectations along with modestly improved profit margin and P/E assumptions reflected in recent Street research updates.
Narrative Update • Jan 20

TROW: Expense Discipline And Flow Headwinds Will Shape Forward Performance

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on T. Rowe Price Group by about $2.42 to roughly $107.83.
Narrative Update • Jan 06

TROW: Efficiency Gains And Buybacks Will Support Earnings Power Ahead

Analysts have lifted their price target on T. Rowe Price Group to about $128 from roughly $112, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profitability, and a lower future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

TROW: Rising Price Expectations Will Clash With Persistent Outflows Ahead

The Analyst Price Target for T. Rowe Price Group has been raised by analysts from $79.23 to $87.43 as they factor in stronger revenue growth, higher profit margins, and improved operating efficiencies despite ongoing industry wide flow headwinds.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

TROW: Cost Controls And Capital Flow Trends Will Influence Forward Performance

The analyst price target for T. Rowe Price Group has been raised by several analysts to a range of $97 to $115.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

TROW: Cost Improvements And Industry Flows Will Shape Performance Amid Recent Outflows

Analysts have modestly increased their fair value estimate for T. Rowe Price Group to approximately $110.
Narrative Update • Oct 31

TROW: Market Momentum And Industry Resilience Will Balance Future Opportunities And Risks

The analyst price target for T. Rowe Price Group has increased slightly, rising by $0.69 to $108.85.
Narrative Update • Oct 17

Retirement Solutions And Global ETFs Will Unlock Future Value

Analysts have increased their price target for T. Rowe Price Group, raising it from approximately $105.38 to $108.15.
Narrative Update • Oct 03

Retirement Solutions And Global ETFs Will Unlock Future Value

T. Rowe Price Group’s fair value estimate has been increased by less than $1 to $105.38, as analysts cite modest improvements in global market performance and continued traction in industry growth.
Analysis Article • Jul 21

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TROW) Looks Inexpensive But Perhaps Not Attractive Enough

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.9x T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TROW ) may be sending bullish...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 27

T. Rowe Price Trades Below Pandemic Levels, Yields Over 5.5% And Looks Enticing

Summary T. Rowe Price Group has faced significant challenges, including declining AUM and net outflows for 13 quarters, impacting investor confidence and market sentiment. Despite these headwinds, TROW offers a compelling investment opportunity with a 5.67% dividend yield and a low payout ratio, suggesting potential for future dividend growth. TROW is actively addressing its challenges by expanding its ETF offerings, entering the insurance asset management space, and leveraging technology to drive organic growth. With strong financial performance, a robust return of capital program, and strategic initiatives, TROW is well-positioned for a potential turnaround and capital appreciation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 27

T. Rowe Price: Flow Stabilization Is The Turning Point

Summary T. Rowe Price is undervalued, trading at ~10x earnings with a 5.3% dividend yield, and poised for flow stabilization and earnings growth. Management aims for flat to positive flows in 2025, driven by sticky retirement assets, early ETF momentum, and private market expansion. Competitive advantages include strong U.S. retirement system ties, efficient operations, and a research-first culture, supporting long-term performance and stability. Valuation suggests significant upside with a fair value of $125/share, supported by DCF analysis and peer comparisons, offering a 10-12% IRR over 5 years. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 26

T. Rowe Price: Undervalued, But Uncertainty Lies Ahead

Summary T. Rowe Price stock is a buy due to its potential to thrive amid broad market overvaluation and possible investor shift towards actively managed ETFs. Despite challenges from passive ETFs, TROW's actively managed funds have historically outperformed the broad market, offering higher returns. TROW's current undervaluation, with lower P/E and P/FCF ratios compared to broad market averages, presents a compelling investment opportunity. While financial growth has slowed, TROW's strong fundamentals and potential for future market outperformance justify a bullish outlook. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 07

T. Rowe Price: Innovator's Dilemma Threatens Its Future

Summary T. Rowe Price's failure to innovate and shift to passive ETFs has led to significant underperformance compared to BlackRock and continuous net outflows. The company's adherence to active investing, despite the growing popularity of passive ETFs, has resulted in a substantial gap in returns and market share. Despite a strong dividend yield and solid financial position, TROW's long-term growth prospects are bleak due to changing investor preferences. The future of TROW looks uncertain as it missed the passive ETF trend and continues to rely on a declining active management industry. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 16

T. Rowe Price: Value Trap As Active Funds Fail To Deliver

Summary Many investors have shifted to passive investing, leaving traditional active firms like T. Rowe Price struggling with stagnant AUM despite strong stock market performance. Despite a low valuation with a forward P/E of 12X and a 4.4% dividend yield, TROW is likely a value trap because its margins and revenue appear to decline. TROW's inability to grow in favorable market conditions suggests potential losses if market conditions worsen, highlighting the need to expand alternative and international equity offerings. Active management at TROW has shown mixed performance. Recent underperformance has pushed clients toward lower-fee passive funds from Vanguard and Blackrock. T. Rowe's focus on lower-churn insurance and retirement clients makes sense but does not address the core competitive issue in US blue-chip funds. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 04

T.Rowe Price: Still Time To Grab A 4% Dividend Yield, And Low Leverage

Summary T.Rowe Price gets upgraded to a buy, from my prior hold rating, driven heavily by the 4% dividend yield and expected future earnings growth. The firm has a debt-to-equity of 0, beating key peers on leverage, and has shown a trend of declining LT debt. The stock trades well below its 5-year high, and its forward P/E is undervalued vs key peers. A continuing risk is net outflows of monies, making the firm dependent on market appreciation to drive AUM values further. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 30

T. Rowe Price: Safety And Growth, Moderating Outflows In Q3

Summary T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. has a long history of innovation and success, with a strong brand and business model providing 38 consecutive years of dividend growth. A pristine balance sheet, large net cash position, and high margins provide significant downside protection for T. Rowe Price Group stock. Rising AUM and increased flows into retirement accounts provide upside participation in bull markets. TROW Net outflows are concerning but moderating, and ETF growth remains promising. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:TROW - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20287,784N/A1,7041,9512
12/31/20277,6612,0202,0742,3044
12/31/20267,5441,9281,8852,2314
3/31/20267,4082,0441,6911,945N/A
12/31/20257,3152,0371,4791,753N/A
9/30/20257,2052,0311,1701,490N/A
6/30/20257,0971,9871,1721,533N/A
3/31/20257,1071,9641,2781,681N/A
12/31/20247,0942,0441,2621,686N/A
9/30/20246,9112,0421,4181,810N/A
6/30/20246,7961,8971,2461,628N/A
3/31/20246,6731,8919951,345N/A
12/31/20236,4611,7449111,219N/A
9/30/20236,3431,5789551,241N/A
6/30/20236,2601,5111,2921,539N/A
3/31/20236,1631,3781,5241,768N/A
12/31/20226,4881,5222,1222,359N/A
9/30/20226,9261,9842,6182,856N/A
6/30/20227,2922,3673,1373,377N/A
3/31/20227,7082,8283,3263,561N/A
12/31/20217,6723,0023,2133,452N/A
9/30/20217,4433,0432,8553,093N/A
6/30/20217,0852,9111,8492,080N/A
3/31/20216,5712,7031,8992,126N/A
12/31/20206,2072,3071,7041,919N/A
9/30/20205,9432,0761,7281,939N/A
6/30/20205,7731,9831,9992,215N/A
3/31/20205,7531,8971,5291,732N/A
12/31/20195,6182,076N/A1,523N/A
9/30/20195,4541,888N/A1,634N/A
6/30/20195,4221,926N/A1,639N/A
3/31/20195,3721,863N/A1,678N/A
12/31/20185,3731,794N/A1,620N/A
9/30/20185,3651,790N/A1,363N/A
6/30/20185,2091,603N/A1,020N/A
3/31/20185,0501,530N/A562N/A
12/31/20174,8551,464N/A230N/A
9/30/20174,6491,496N/A255N/A
6/30/20174,5031,435N/A324N/A
3/31/20174,3611,268N/A287N/A
12/31/20164,2851,190N/A171N/A
9/30/20164,1841,117N/A405N/A
6/30/20164,1401,070N/A630N/A
3/31/20164,1681,201N/A1,059N/A
12/31/20154,2011,207N/A1,531N/A
9/30/20154,1711,220N/A1,469N/A
6/30/20154,1431,247N/A1,452N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TROW's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: TROW's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TROW's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TROW's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TROW's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TROW's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.6%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/27 10:16
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/27 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Stephen BiggarArgus Research Company
Benjamin BudishBarclays
Roger FreemanBarclays