StepStone Group Inc. (NASDAQ:STEP) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 26% Price Plummet

StepStone Group Inc. (NASDAQ:STEP) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand. Looking at the bigger picture, even after this poor month the stock is up 41% in the last year.

Even after such a large drop in price, it's still not a stretch to say that StepStone Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 3.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Capital Markets industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 2.9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

See our latest analysis for StepStone Group

How StepStone Group Has Been Performing

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, StepStone Group has been doing relatively well. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this strong revenue performance might be about to tail off. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on StepStone Group will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For StepStone Group?

StepStone Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 119%. Still, revenue has fallen 15% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 12% during the coming year according to the four analysts following the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 5.1%.

With this in consideration, we think it doesn't make sense that StepStone Group's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From StepStone Group's P/S?

Following StepStone Group's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our check of StepStone Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see a gloomy outlook like this, our immediate thoughts are that the share price is at risk of declining, negatively impacting P/S. If we consider the revenue outlook, the P/S seems to indicate that potential investors may be paying a premium for the stock.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for StepStone Group that we have uncovered.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.